Andy Burnham is facing a new test for his policies – the “Moscow test” – after the former head of the armed forces warned that the UK currently “falls short” of the level of defence spending needed to deter Russian threats.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who served as chief of the defence staff until last year, told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that the prime minister-in-waiting would need to operate “almost like a wartime prime minister” and must meet a pledge to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035.
“Andy Burnham faces pressure to pass a 'Moscow test' on defence as ex-military chief warns UK falls short.”
“What do we look like to Moscow? Do we look like a strong member of the Nato alliance? Do we look like a strong nuclear power? Do we look like a strong ally of America? Because those are the elements that keep us safe,” Sir Tony said.
His intervention came as the government prepares to publish its long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) before the Nato summit in Turkey on 7 July. The plan has already triggered a political crisis: Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns both resigned earlier this month over what they said was insufficient investment. Healey quit after he failed to secure more than £13.5bn to plug an £18bn gap in funding for the 10-year capital programme.
Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is believed to have secured about £1bn more than his predecessor after days of intense haggling between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury. But Burnham, who succeeded Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and is favourite to become prime minister, has not yet committed to the deal. Allies said he reserved the right to reopen it if needed.
Sir Tony warned that if the DIP was “not enough”, the next prime minister would have to find more funding before the general election. “All of that at the moment is too bare,” he said, referring to military capabilities. “That is stores. That is maintenance. That’s how you get those ships out. That’s how your aircraft are available for operations.”
Meanwhile, Burnham is also navigating a delicate political balancing act on the economy. Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, has said that Ed Miliband would make a “good” chancellor – a move that some inside Labour fear could unsettle the markets and anger big business. “Yes I do actually,” Powell told the BBC when asked whether she thought Miliband would suit the Treasury. But she added that the speculation was “unedifying”.
Burnham is expected to use his first major economic speech on Monday to announce radical plans to devolve powers from Whitehall to England’s regions while also stressing his commitment to fiscal rules. One ally suggested that the more “boring” the speech, the more likely it was that Miliband would be given the Treasury job.
Sir Tony made clear that whatever the political calculations, defence must remain the priority. “There’s a risk at the moment that we fall short on those commitments – and then that creates a whole load of hurt with our Nato allies and especially our relationship with America,” he said.