The big question in Westminster today is not who will be prime minister, but who Andy Burnham will appoint to his government and what he will do with power. Burnham's accession is taken as a given by Labour MPs after Sir Keir Starmer announced his departure, and the remaining obstacles have fallen quickly. On Wednesday morning, senior minister Darren Jones confirmed he would not launch a challenge of his own. Former Armed Forces Minister Al Carns has not ruled out a bid, but it seems vanishingly unlikely he would get the backing of 81 Labour MPs needed to trigger a formal contest.
Attention is therefore shifting to what Burnham in No 10 would look like. On policy and priorities, there are still many questions. But the shape of his top team is emerging. Rachel Reeves will not be his chancellor. That is hardly a surprise for an incoming prime minister vowing change, but it is a big deal: Reeves has been chancellor for two years and spent years in opposition fashioning Labour's economic approach. She is likely to be offered a more junior cabinet position — a rare demotion for a chancellor, with the last example in 1983.
“Andy Burnham's likely premiership is reshaping Labour's top team, with Ed Miliband tipped as chancellor and council tax reforms mooted.”
The frontrunner to replace her is widely considered to be Ed Miliband, the energy secretary. Miliband urged Sir Keir not to block Burnham's first attempted return to Parliament in January and has been seen as supportive of Burnham's ambitions since. His advocates argue he is exactly the kind of chancellor Burnham needs to transform the British economy, and that he has shown an uncommon ability to drive the government machine, with years of Treasury experience advising Gordon Brown. But many Labour MPs, especially on the right, are opposed, fearing a shift too far to the left. "I think the chancellor thing is a huge risk for Andy," one MP said.
Alongside personnel, Burnham is rumoured to be mulling radical property tax reforms. According to reports, council tax could be ditched in favour of a new property levy, though details remain unclear. As his premiership draws nearer, the question is not whether he will enter No 10, but what he will do once he gets there.