It was 3.30am, just after the Wigan returning officer had read out Andy Burnham’s 9,231 majority, and a close adviser to Burnham texted: “We will need to be ready a lot sooner than we thought.”
That text proved prescient. Keir Starmer resigned on Monday before Burnham was even sworn in as an MP for Makerfield. Wes Streeting was out of the race an hour later. Burnham travelled down on the Avanti West Coast – yet to be nationalised – to Euston on a train that was delayed by 21 minutes. But everything else about the transition will be whiplash fast.
“Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister in less than three weeks after Keir Starmer resigned with little fuss.”
The new MP for Makerfield is likely to be prime minister in less than three weeks’ time. If he has no opponents, he will be in No 10 by 17 July.
“The next general election will be won or lost in the first 100 days – it’s very difficult to change people’s views after that,” said one MP close to Burnham. “They also need to see real delivery, like Zohran Mamdani promising to fill potholes in New York and people leaning out of their windows and actually seeing it.”
Over the course of the Makerfield byelection campaign, Burnham had understandably wanted to spend most of his time focused on winning the constituency. But with poll numbers heading in their direction, he began spending more of his time talking to the very small close circle of policy advisers who have been thinking about what comes next. The team has been besieged by policy submissions and have been fending off legions of hopefuls who want their ideas associated with the next prime minister.
“We will need to look like change,” one senior figure in the Burnham campaign said. His transition team will be the three female MPs who delivered his stunning victory: Anneliese Midgley, Louise Haigh and Sally Jameson. Over the next fortnight, Burnham plans a number of speeches to set out his agenda. First will be a significant offer on devolution, building on the reforms that Starmer has begun.
Starmer’s exit was marked by “comparatively little fuss”, with no operational note sent to the media. Shortly before 9.30am, Downing Street staffers and a handful of cabinet ministers assembled: David Lammy, Darren Jones, Richard Hermer and Douglas Alexander. No sign of Rachel Reeves. The door opened and Starmer and his wife, Victoria, emerged, both “utterly forlorn”. From outside the gates, Steve Bray played Ode to Joy before someone pulled the plug on his PA system. Starmer will be the sixth UK prime minister in a decade to leave office.
As Burnham’s team scrambles to prepare, the question remains: can the new leader deliver the change he promised before the next election is lost?