It is Tuesday, Sept 29 at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. Andy Burnham takes to the podium, to a roar of cheers and applause from the party faithful, to deliver his address as prime minister. “We promised change and we have started to deliver,” he declares, still enjoying the honeymoon phase of his two months in No 10. “The work of change has begun, but I have come to realise real change needs a fresh start,” he says and an expectant hush falls on the crowd. “The people need their say. Which is why I can announce when back in London I will go to the Palace and request a general election.”
Such scenes may forever stay in the realm of fantasy. There are plenty of reasons why, if he enters No 10 unchallenged on July 17, Mr Burnham will wave away a snap election. The risk of ripping up a three-year premiership on the vagaries of opinion poll tea-leaf gazing; the very real possibility of a shrunken House of Commons majority even if all goes well. Indeed, that is the working assumption in Westminster.
“Andy Burnham could call a snap election at Labour conference to secure legitimacy after becoming PM without a vote.”
But – whisper it – there are those across the political spectrum starting to look at Labour’s Liverpool conference and wonder. “I wouldn’t rule out doing it by conference if things go spectacularly well between now and then,” says one long-term Labour adviser close to a key member of Team Burnham.
The Tories, too, have ringed the date, seeking to avoid being caught out. “We are upping our game and we are ready,” says an aide to Kemi Badenoch. “We are having discussions.”
What possible rationale could there be for forcing the country to the polls so soon after riding so much luck to reach No 10, unleashing all the uncertainty that would follow? For one, there is “peak Burnham”. Almost all prime ministers follow the same trajectory: their highest point of popularity comes in the first year followed by a long slide downwards. Right now, Mr Burnham is a fresh face, or “a pair of eyelashes and a black T‑shirt”, as Mrs Badenoch, the Conservative leader, called him in Prime Minister’s Questions on Wednesday. Labour’s heir apparent then responded by posting a video on X batting said eyelashes, looking at his T‑shirt and purring: “It’s dark blue, actually.”
The contrast of a politician with charisma, oozing bloke-next-door ordinariness, with a wooden, stilted Sir Keir Starmer means a “Burnham bounce” is predicted. Why not try to lock it in?
The second is that nagging issue of legitimacy. Mr Burnham, in all likelihood, will be installed in Downing Street without a single vote not just from Labour members but MPs. Even more jarring, the coronation will be of a man who did not get elected by the public. A snap election would silence critics who question his mandate – but at the cost of handing the electorate an early verdict on his premiership.
The question now is whether Burnham will gamble on a September election, or sit tight and hope the bounce lasts. The Tories are preparing for both scenarios. The clock is ticking.