Andy Burnham has stormed to victory in the Makerfield by-election, capturing 54.8% of the vote and defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by almost 10,000 points, in a result that will trigger a leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer. The Greater Manchester Mayor’s barnstorming win – despite Reform throwing everything at the seat – came as Restore Britain, an ultra-nationalist group, won more than 3,000 votes, but failed to split the right-wing vote enough to stop Burnham.
Burnham’s win was so commanding that it rendered irrelevant the 34.5% secured by Kenyon, whose party had been riding high in national polls. The result is a bitter blow to Nigel Farage, whose Reform UK had expected to win Makerfield – a constituency that is largely working class, overwhelmingly white, and where immigration is a top issue. “Reform may be top of the polls and riding high in local elections, but this is the second disappointing by-election result in a row for them after losing Gorton and Denton,” wrote Metro’s Craig Munro from the Wigan counting room. “Makerfield should be prime Reform territory… and they didn’t just lose, they were crushed.”
“Andy Burnham wins Makerfield by-election with 54.8% of the vote, defeating Reform UK and triggering a Labour leadership challenge.”
For the Conservatives, the result marks an unprecedented collapse. In 2019 the Tories came second in Makerfield, winning more than 14,000 votes; now they are set to finish third among parties of the Right, behind Restore Britain. The party’s candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, a “rare example of a populist candidate who doesn’t have much to say,” has become the face of a historic decline. “Under first-past-the-post, success often rests on persuading voters that going elsewhere is a wasted ballot,” noted UnHerd. “It’s a hard trick to pull when your most loyal voters have two credible alternatives.”
Burnham’s campaign was boosted by the support of Hollywood actor Hugh Grant, who dropped into the mayor’s campaign headquarters on Wednesday to lend his stardust, joined earlier by comedian Steve Coogan. The celebrity endorsements underscored the high stakes: victory in Makerfield clears the path for Burnham to launch a bid for the Labour leadership and the premiership. Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to fight any moves against him, but the scale of Burnham’s win – driven by what the New Statesman called a “16-point Burnham effect” – leaves the Prime Minister vulnerable.
If Burnham does become PM, he is expected to push for more radical government. He has long backed a land value tax to replace council tax, a measure that would hit Londoners hardest: analysis suggests the ninth income decile would face a £991 increase, and the top decile £966. “I’m personally keen to see reform of council tax,” Burnham said recently. “It’s a highly regressive tax.” For now, though, the focus is on the immediate political earthquake. The result in Makerfield has not only reshaped the by-election’s narrative – it has opened the door to a change of government.