In June 2026, the normally quiet constituency of Makerfield, in Greater Manchester, became the centre of British politics. Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and hugely popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, won the by-election with 54.8% of the vote, defeating Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon by almost 10,000 votes. The result could spell the end of Sir Keir Starmer’s time as Prime Minister, with Burnham now widely expected to launch a leadership bid. But beyond the immediate drama, the Makerfield by-election is a classic example of how these occasional votes can reshape the political landscape.
A by-election is a special election held in a single parliamentary constituency to fill a vacancy that arises between general elections. Vacancies can occur when an MP dies, resigns, or is disqualified. The Makerfield seat became vacant after the previous Labour MP stood down. In a by-election, only voters registered in that constituency go to the polls, and the winner becomes the new MP for that seat. The candidates are chosen by their parties, often months before the vote.
“An explainer on UK by-elections using the Makerfield vote as a case study.”
By-elections have a long history in British politics. They are often seen as a mid-term test of public opinion, giving voters a chance to punish or reward the government without triggering a general election. For opposition parties, they offer a chance to build momentum. For smaller parties, like Reform UK, they provide a platform to demonstrate national appeal. In Makerfield, Reform had high hopes: in the most recent local elections, the party won 50% of the vote in the constituency’s wards, against Labour’s 25%. The Conservatives, who finished second here in 2019 with more than 14,000 votes, were expected to finish behind Restore Britain, an ultra-nationalist party – a symbol of how far the Tories have fallen.
The Makerfield by-election matters for UK readers because it highlights several key trends. First, it shows the decline of the Conservative Party: they were virtually invisible on the ground and risked finishing third among right-wing parties. Second, it demonstrates the rise of Reform UK and the threat they pose to Labour in traditional working-class areas. But the result also showed that a strong local candidate – Burnham – can buck national trends. His victory was driven by what analysts call the “Burnham effect”, a personal popularity that added up to 16 points to Labour’s vote share.
For voters across the UK, by-elections matter because they can trigger national consequences. A by-election defeat can destabilise a prime minister, as seen in 2019 when Labour lost Hartlepool to the Conservatives. Conversely, a big win can launch a leadership challenge. If Burnham becomes Labour leader and PM, policies he supports – such as replacing council tax with a land value tax – could become government policy. Property tax reform could see some Londoners pay £1,000 more, according to an analysis by Policy Engine. By-elections also bring unusual coalitions: Hollywood stars Hugh Grant and Steve Coogan campaigned for Burnham, highlighting the media and celebrity angles.
Q: What is a by-election? A by-election is a special election held in a single constituency to fill a vacant MP seat. It is triggered by the death, resignation, or disqualification of the sitting MP. Only voters in that constituency can vote, and the result does not affect other seats.
Q: Why is the Makerfield by-election important? Makerfield was seen as a test of whether Labour could hold off Reform UK in a working-class area where immigration is a top concern. The result showed Andy Burnham’s personal popularity could overcome national trends, and it set him up as a potential challenger to Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Q: How do by-elections affect the government? By-elections are often seen as a mid-term verdict on the government. A heavy defeat can weaken a prime minister’s authority and trigger leadership speculation. Strong showings by opposition or smaller parties can signal shifts in voter sentiment that may influence policy or electoral strategy.
The most immediate consequence of the Makerfield by-election will be the future of Sir Keir Starmer. If Burnham launches a leadership bid, Labour could see a change of direction, with Burnham pushing for more radical policies like land value tax. For Reform UK, the defeat – even though they increased their vote share significantly – showed they still struggle to convert national polling into by-election wins, especially against a well-known local figure. The Conservatives, meanwhile, face an existential crisis: in the previous by-election in Gorton and Denton they got less than 2% of the vote. The long-term decline of one of the world’s oldest political parties is now an undeniable trend.