The former foreign secretary David Miliband has declared himself “optimistic” about the prospect of Andy Burnham becoming the next prime minister – even as the man expected to succeed Sir Keir Starmer faces the most consequential decision of his fledgling leadership: who to make chancellor.
Speaking at a Centre for Global Development think tank event in London on Friday, Miliband praised Burnham's “openness and energy that I think is very attractive and positive”. He called the expected appointment of former Labour cabinet minister James Purnell as Burnham’s Downing Street chief of staff “fantastic”.
“David Miliband says he is optimistic about Andy Burnham becoming PM, as choice of chancellor looms.”
“I haven’t lost my youthful optimism,” Miliband said. “Andy Burnham, James [Purnell] and I came into the House of Commons at the same time in 2001 and I think [Burnham has] always had this remarkable ability to listen, to connect, to process data and ideas and information.”
Miliband, the older brother of energy secretary Ed Miliband, quit as MP for South Shields in 2013 to become president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee – a job he still holds. In theory, he could join a Burnham cabinet via a peerage, as David Cameron did when he became foreign secretary under Rishi Sunak.
At the event, which focused on climate finance and international aid, Miliband repeated his criticism of Starmer’s decision last year to cut UK development assistance from 0.5% to 0.3% of national income. Asked what message he had for the next prime minister on aid spending, Miliband replied: “My message is of course to read the IRC’s publications because they provide such an evidence-based and innovative and cost-effective way of serving the most vulnerable and poverty-stricken parts of the world. So there you go.” When pressed on whether he had been in contact with Burnham’s team recently, he did not answer.
One person who knows Miliband told the BBC he would be “a massive asset to Andy Burnham’s cabinet”, citing his work on foreign affairs, humanitarian action and climate change.
But the biggest immediate choice for Burnham, who won the Makerfield by-election and is due to deliver a speech on the economy and devolution on Monday, is not who will serve in his cabinet – it is who will hold the keys to Number 11. People who claim to know his mind say he is expected to decide this weekend, with market uncertainty next week potentially becoming a major story in itself. No promises have been made to anybody, and the decision is deeply personal: the relationship between a prime minister and chancellor can be creatively intense or toxically destructive, evoking memories of Blair and Brown or Cameron and Osborne.
Get it wrong, and Burnham could face a market crisis before he even enters Number 10. Get it right, and the fiscal straitjacket could loosen quickly.
Rachel Reeves, the current chancellor who is fighting a rearguard action, appears to be losing ground. “Not Rachel,” a Burnham backer said. The two most obvious candidates to replace her are Wes Streeting from the centre right and Ed Miliband from the centre left.
Streeting, the bookmakers’ favourite, is one of the party’s best explainers and verbal street-fighters. Pro-business, he has been working with the influential pro-growth guru Will Hutton and former Bank of England economist Andy Haldane. If his appointment caused gilt yields to fall, that would unlock billions for other purposes. But contrary to other reports, Streeting has neither lobbied nor asked Burnham for the job and, I am told, has no particular expectations. He has not been “banging the door down” on the temporary office. The case against him is that he has made no secret of his appetite for the top job, which may make Burnham nervous about having him as his neighbour.
The case against Ed Miliband has been prosecuted enthusiastically by the right-wing press: attacked by union leaders for his net zero policies and savaged by commentators who see him as a knee-jerk left-winger, he would face intense bond market scrutiny. One senior MP said: “It’s actually unfair, but the question is, can Ed get beyond the vicious caricature of him?” Yet the case for Miliband is powerful and has not been properly aired.
Burnham will make his choice in the coming days. Get it right, and he could unlock a new era. Get it wrong, and the markets may not wait to pass judgment.