This weekend is set to be the busiest on UK roads in four years, with an estimated 14.1 million motorists heading off on summer getaways between Friday and Sunday. According to the RAC, that figure is the second highest since tracking began in 2016, surpassed only by the 18.8 million who scrambled to travel when Covid lockdown restrictions were lifted in 2022. Saturday is predicted to be the most hectic day, with 3.8 million drivers planning trips, while Friday and Sunday are each expected to see 3.4 million. A further 6.8 million journeys are spread across the three days as some remain unsure when they will set off.
Most schools in England and Wales have broken up this week or will do so early next week, while the academic year has already ended in Scotland and Northern Ireland. The south-west and north-west of England are expected to see the most leisure traffic. Congestion hotspots identified by transport analytics company Inrix include the M1 southbound from Junction 16 (Northampton) to Junction 6 (Watford), the M25 clockwise from Junction 15 (M4) to Junction 19 (Watford), and the M25 anticlockwise from Junction 17 (Maple Cross) to Junction 12 (M3).
“RAC warns 14.1m drivers face summer traffic chaos as professor says changing lanes worsens jams.”
RAC spokesperson Harriet Hernando advised drivers to “plan their journeys, thinking about setting off earlier or later in the day to avoid traffic jams”. “People should prepare for delays and getting stuck in a jam in potentially very hot weather,” she added, urging travellers to “carry plenty of water, as well as sun cream, and an umbrella to provide shade”.
At the Port of Dover, approximately 7,500 outbound cars are expected on Friday, rising to around 10,000 on Saturday. A statement from the port said traffic remains steady with an approximate 32-minute wait time in the buffer zone. “All operators currently have queues building at their check-ins, while the port approaches remain clear and traffic is flowing well. Safe travels!” Ferry passengers have been told not to arrive earlier than two hours before departure, after wait times reached an hour on Thursday. Speaking ahead of the rush, Port of Dover chief executive Doug Bannister said it was “very disappointing” that a new Entry/Exit System processing facility built as part of a £40m investment was not being used for cars because the technology had not been activated.
While many drivers will be tempted to switch lanes in a bid to cut journey times, an expert has warned it rarely helps. Randa Herzallah, Associate Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Warwick, said that mathematics suggests this intuition “is usually wrong”. She explained that many queues are “phantom traffic jams” – stop-start waves that travel backwards through traffic even though every vehicle is moving forwards. “There is an optimal traffic density that maximises the number of vehicles passing through the road each hour,” she said. “Beyond that point, adding more cars reduces the efficiency of the road – and increases the time it takes everyone to get to their destination.” A lane change creates a small disturbance that neighbouring drivers must react to, she added, and if many drivers behave the same way, “these disturbances accumulate and increase the likelihood of traffic waves”. Professor Herzallah said applied mathematics shows “the fastest way to your destination isn’t to drive more aggressively. It’s to help keep the entire system stable.”