The abiding image of St Petersburg's International Economic Forum this week was a huge plume of thick black smoke that dominated the skyline on Wednesday, the result of Ukrainian drone attacks on the city. As delegates arrived at the expo centre on the edge of the city, all saw the smoke. Local officials admitted that drones had damaged "infrastructure", without specifying what was hit.
The forum, a flagship event for Vladimir Putin, was bookended by drone attacks. Residents of St Petersburg were told to stay at home following a large-scale attack, with the regional governor reporting that 141 drones were shot down over the surrounding region. Inside the congress hall, a folkloric villain – Koshchei the Deathless, played by a performer – entertained guests with sleight of hand, producing coins out of thin air and shocking passers-by with puffs of smoke. "Russians are unpredictable people," he declared. "We do things no one expects."
“Ukrainian drone attacks on St Petersburg overshadow Putin's economic forum as Armenia heads to polls expected to re-elect pro-Western leader.”
But the unexpected was delivered most dramatically by Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky published an open letter to Putin, taunting Russia's leader about his age and Russian setbacks in the war, but proposing a meeting in a neutral country for peace talks. Putin criticised the letter's "rude" tone and dismissed the offer. "It's not the author of the letter I need to respond to," he said, "but our soldiers on the frontline… I say to them: keep at it, brothers!" At the forum's plenary session, Putin tried to project confidence. "There are wars and sanctions. But the economy is developing," he claimed. "Everything is stable."
Yet his problem is what's happening outside. The massive battlefield losses and long-range Ukrainian drones penetrating deep inside the country are visible reminders of the war's toll. When asked about the war, senior officials quoted the Kremlin – a reminder, perhaps, of whose idea the "special military operation" was in the first place.
Putin's difficulties extend beyond Ukraine. On Sunday, Armenians go to the polls and are expected to re-elect Nikol Pashinyan, the increasingly pro-Western prime minister. For centuries, Christian Armenia viewed Orthodox Russia as its protector, but that relationship has unravelled since Russia's full-scale invasion. Putin retaliated against Pashinyan by allowing Russian peacekeepers to stand aside in 2023 as Azerbaijan reclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh, expecting the resulting refugee crisis to topple the Armenian leader. Instead, Armenians directed their anger at Moscow, and Pashinyan argued that Armenia's future depended on ending its vassalage to Russia. "Pashinyan is openly looking for a gradual decoupling from Russia," said Laurence Broers of Chatham House.
The potential rewards for Armenia are considerable: reopening sealed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, ending decades of isolation, and hosting a US-backed transit corridor linking Europe with Central Asia. As Putin faces a defiant Ukraine at his doorstep and a former ally slipping from his grasp, the image of strength he projects inside the forum hall is increasingly at odds with the world outside.