The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared that an El Niño event is now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months and already passed the 0.5C-above-average threshold used to define the phenomenon. The announcement, long expected after the cooler La Niña pattern ended earlier this year, comes with a stark warning: this could be a 'super' El Niño, with a 63% chance of a very strong event during November-January that would rank among the largest in the historical record going back to 1950. Some US and European models even suggest temperatures in the tropical Pacific could climb more than 3C above average by the end of the year.
"El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean," NOAA said, noting that winds above the equatorial Pacific have also begun to shift — a sign that the atmosphere is now responding to the warmer ocean. The agency urged caution, however, stressing that even very strong El Niño events "do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in favour of expected outcomes."
“US scientists declare El Niño has begun, with high chance of 'super' event and unprecedented temperatures due to climate change.”
The bigger concern, scientists say, is that all this is happening on an already much hotter planet. "The current El Niño is… riding on top of a substantial amount of global warming," said Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office. "This means that the actual temperatures in affected regions could well be unprecedented, as the warming from El Niño is being topped up by climate change." The UK has already experienced its hottest May day on record, and storm tracks across the Atlantic could be altered by the phenomenon, affecting how and where winter storms develop this year.
Mohamed Adow, director of campaign group Power Shift Africa, painted a grim picture for vulnerable regions: "An El Niño declaration is not just another weather forecast — for millions of people, it is a deadly siren to be feared. It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again." The strongest El Niño events since 1950 occurred in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, and this year's could rival or surpass them. If it does, the global temperature record — already pushed higher by decades of human-caused warming — could be shattered, most likely in 2027, with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.