England can seal a place in the last 32 of the World Cup tonight with a second straight win in Group L – and the data suggests they should do so in style. The Three Lions put four past Croatia in their opener, a performance fuelled by Harry Kane’s two goals from six shots, four on target, in 102 minutes. Jude Bellingham, ranked number one globally for market value among players in his position by Machine Football’s predictive model, pulled the strings throughout, while Anthony Gordon sits in the top 1% worldwide for contribution value.
Ghana, by contrast, scraped past Panama 1-0 and have lost or drawn three of their last four matches, including a 5-1 hammering by Austria. Antoine Semenyo managed just one shot in 108 minutes against Panama, and the Black Stars will likely spend long periods defending deep against an England side that won eight corners against Croatia.
“England can reach World Cup last 32 with win over Ghana after dominant Croatia display.”
Thomas Tuchel has openly prioritised set-pieces, and Declan Rice – who averaged 4.51 corners per 90 during qualifying – remains the designated specialist. Noni Madueke, England’s most dangerous wide threat against Croatia, completed both crosses, created two shots on target and registered an expected assists of 0.42 in just 78 minutes. The Machine Football model ranks him in the top 1% globally for dribbling, and he faces Ghana right-back Alidu Seidu, who committed 1.16 fouls per 90 in Ligue 1 this season. Madueke is keeping Bukayo Saka out of the starting XI and arrives at the tournament with something to prove.
England will create chances; Ghana will create something on the counter through Semenyo and Abdul Fatawu. But the gap in class is significant. Backed by data, England are expected to win, and a victory would confirm progression from Group L with a game to spare.