England brace for penalty shootout nightmare as Tuchel warns squad they may need to win two

Thomas Tuchel has already sat England’s players down and told them the stark truth: if they are to win the World Cup, they will have to win two penalty shootouts. The warning, based on statistics and probability, comes as the team head into the knockout stages knowing a single spot kick can decide a game – and that history is not on their side. England have won only three of their 10 shootouts in men’s Euros and World Cups, losing seven. Their last one, the quarter-final of Euro 2024, was a rare success: they beat Switzerland 5-3 with five perfectly executed penalties from Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Ivan Toney and Trent Alexander-Arnold. But Alexander-Arnold and Palmer are not in this squad. Nor is Harry Maguire, who likes to smash his penalties home and has scored six from seven (86%). That leaves Harry Kane as the likely first taker – despite his infamous miss against France in the quarter-final of the last World Cup. Kane has a 100% record in shootouts and 89.4% overall (110 scored from 123). He also missed one penalty earlier in this tournament, but it was retaken and he scored, showing calmness. Jordan Pickford, who once volunteered to take one, has been relegated down the list. Tuchel favours Ivan Toney, a “special ops” striker whose no-look technique exudes confidence. The research backs preparation: a study of more than 1,700 penalties across Europe’s top divisions found that effective techniques vary by country – for example, shots down the middle were statistically associated with success in the Premier League. And winning the coin toss before a shootout is crucial: since the rule change allowing the toss winner to choose first or second, about 60% of toss winners go on to win the shootout, compared with 51% for teams that shoot first. England have been practising regularly since arriving in Florida, even holding a mock shootout after a behind-closed-doors friendly. The nerves are already building.