Households are facing further cost pressures on their food bills due to degraded soils and climate volatility, according to campaigners who warn that staples such as potatoes, bread and vegetables could be particularly exposed.
The Save Soil movement estimated that a typical household could potentially end up paying hundreds of pounds more per year. Degraded soils are slower to recover, so droughts, heatwaves and floods cause larger yield losses and sharper price swings, the group said.
“Save Soil warns households could pay hundreds more annually as degraded soils and climate volatility drive food price shocks.”
Praveena Sridhar, chief policy and science officer of Save Soil, argued that restoring soil health is among the most cost-effective hedges against future shocks. “Prices are driven by energy, labour and global markets, but soil decides how hard each shock lands,” she said. “Healthy soil holds water through a drought and structure through a flood, so yields hold and prices steady.”
Low-income families who spend more of their budget on food are particularly at risk in terms of the price impact, campaigners added.
The warning comes as the Met Office said earlier in June that the El Niño climate pattern could increase the chances of milder, wetter and windier weather in the UK during autumn and early winter. El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator that affects weather patterns worldwide, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months.
Concerns have also been raised that UK food imports could come under further pressure from climate impacts amid speculation that 2027 could become the hottest year on record.
Save Soil is calling for a legally binding soil health target, a national soil-monitoring scheme and funding for farmer advice and training.
Official figures released last week showed UK inflation unexpectedly flatlined in May. The Office for National Statistics said Consumer Prices Index inflation remained at 2.8%, the same rate as in April, as a slowdown in food price rises offset pressure from air fares. Food and drink inflation eased to 2.2% from 3% in April, falling to its lowest level since December 2024.
A Government spokesperson said: “We are taking a range of actions to keep prices down for households, including the cost of the weekly shop. We’ve committed to maintaining domestic food production by investing billions in the development of new technology to increase yields, develop climate resilient crops and help farmers produce more food; and we’re increasing our water supply by building new reservoirs for the first time in 30 years.” The spokesperson said the Government will be launching the 25-year farming road map.