The 60-day ceasefire signed by the US and Iran three weeks ago fell apart on July 8 after Iran targeted vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz without its permission, prompting American strikes on a range of military targets in the Islamic Republic. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over”, saying further talks would be a “waste of time”, and the two sides have since exchanged further rounds of attacks.
The clashes arise from the quest for control of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which around 20% of the world’s maritime oil and gas passes. Scott Lucas, an expert in Middle East and US politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, said the Trump camp needs to break Iran’s control of the strait, which was established days after the war began. “Otherwise, they will have to negotiate a deal based largely on Iranian terms,” he said.
“Iran-US ceasefire collapses after Trump declares talks ‘waste of time’; US warned of plot to kill Trump in Turkey”
Several rounds of clashes have taken place since the initial ceasefire was declared in April. Each cycle sees Iran attack a few vessels, preventing the US from establishing a shipping corridor off the Omani coast, and the US military responds with strikes on Iranian military sites. After a few days, each side pulls back.
But there is a twist in the latest cycle. The US hit not only military targets but also two civilian bridges connecting the Iranian capital, Tehran, to the second city, Mashhad – where the assassinated Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was being buried on Thursday. Lucas said the move may have been symbolic rather than a substantive escalation, but warned it was “worth watching, in case the Trump camp are thinking of renewing strikes on civilian infrastructure”.
Iran’s retaliation reinforced the message that it has the will and capacity to survive what is thrown at it, and cause chaos in the region. This time, it made clear the gloves were off, with serious damage and effects on the political and economic positions of the six Gulf countries. That set off a chain of consequences, including a split among those countries. The United Arab Emirates is moving closer to Israel and the Trump camp, while Saudi Arabia – angered about the lack of US protection early in the war – wanted Trump to “finish the job” with ground troops. Once that did not happen, the Saudis switched to playing both sides.
Amid the escalating conflict, it has emerged that the US was warned by a Western intelligence agency that Iran was plotting to kill Donald Trump in Turkey, before he decided to avoid flying back on the new Air Force One. The revelation adds another layer of tension to a standoff that shows no signs of de-escalation.
