Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce his departure as prime minister as early as Monday, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs following Andy Burnham's decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election. Business Secretary Peter Kyle confirmed the prime minister is "taking the time to think through what the political realities are today" and is mindful of the national interest. More than 100 Labour MPs have now called for Starmer to go, and senior cabinet figures including Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper have privately urged him to set out an exit timetable.
Andy Burnham, the former Greater Manchester mayor, won the Makerfield by-election on Thursday with an increased majority, defeating Reform UK and ending a run of electoral losses for Labour. His return to Westminster has emboldened Labour MPs who see him as the party's best chance to revive its fortunes and counter the Reform threat. Burnham is now the clear front-runner to succeed Starmer, though former health secretary Wes Streeting has also pledged to challenge for the leadership.
“Why Keir Starmer is expected to resign as PM and what the Labour leadership crisis means for the UK.”
The roots of the crisis stretch back to last month's devastating local election results, which triggered calls from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband for Starmer to go. Starmer initially vowed to fight any leadership challenge, telling reporters on Friday he would not "walk away" and warning against "plunging our party and our country into chaos." But the scale of the rebellion—now involving over a quarter of Labour MPs—has left his position untenable. A senior ally told The Sun there is "just a 25% chance he fights on now."
For UK readers, this leadership crisis matters because it creates significant political uncertainty. The prospect of a leadership contest—the 2020 race took six weeks—could delay key government decisions and unsettle financial markets. There are also concerns about the government's ability to maintain authority during a transition. A September handover, which Burnham's camp favours, would mean "three more months of incapacitated government," as one backbencher put it. The outcome will determine the direction of Labour policy and the government's approach to challenges such as the economy, public services, and relations with allies like the US, after Donald Trump declared that Starmer "will resign."
Q: Why is Keir Starmer resigning? Starmer is stepping down after losing the confidence of a large majority of Labour MPs, triggered by Andy Burnham's landslide win in the Makerfield by-election. Cabinet ministers and over 100 Labour MPs have called for him to go, leaving him with no realistic path to remain as leader.
Q: Who will replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister? Andy Burnham is the clear favourite, having just returned to Parliament with a strong by-election victory. He is expected to face a challenge from Wes Streeting, but Burnham's allies are confident he can secure enough backers to press Starmer into a quick handover, possibly by September.
Q: What happens if there is a Labour leadership contest? A formal contest would take several weeks, as in 2020, and would involve Labour members and affiliated trade union supporters voting. Party figures worry this could cause further division and delay government business, though some believe a swift transition—perhaps before the summer recess on July 16—would minimise disruption.
What happens next hinges on Starmer's expected announcement on Monday. He is understood to be weighing a timetable for departure, possibly stepping down in the autumn or sooner if Burnham's camp pushes for a faster transition. The prime minister is at his Chequers residence taking soundings from ministers and family, while Burnham is due in Westminster on Monday to be sworn in as an MP and is expected to meet Starmer to present his list of backers. The coming days will determine whether the handover is orderly or descends into a protracted leadership battle.