On Monday morning, Keir Starmer is expected to announce his departure as prime minister, bringing to a head weeks of mounting pressure following Andy Burnham's decisive by-election win. The Labour leader's position has become untenable after losing the confidence of his own MPs, with Donald Trump even weighing in on Truth Social to say Starmer “will resign” for having “failed badly on immigration and energy.” The question now is not whether Starmer will go, but when and how the handover to Burnham will happen.
The immediate trigger for the crisis was Andy Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026. Burnham, the former Greater Manchester mayor, won the seat with more than half the vote and a larger majority than Labour achieved in the 2024 general election landslide. In his victory speech, Burnham made his most explicit statement yet about his intentions, calling the result “a final chance to change” for the Labour government. The New Statesman reported that Burnham already has the nominations needed to trigger a formal leadership challenge. Several cabinet members have reportedly told Starmer to set a timetable for his departure by the end of the weekend.
“An explainer on Keir Starmer's expected resignation and Andy Burnham's leadership challenge.”
To understand the drama, you need to know how a sitting Labour prime minister can be replaced. Under Labour Party rules, a leadership challenge can be triggered if 20% of Labour MPs nominate a challenger. If the incumbent loses a confidence vote among MPs, a leadership election is held. Starmer had resisted such a move, saying on Friday he would not “walk away” and would stand in any contest. But the political realities have shifted. Business secretary Peter Kyle, who spoke to Starmer on Friday, said the PM was reflecting on “political realities” and that he had a “frank conversation” with him. The Guardian reported that Starmer is expected to set out a resignation plan on Monday, with one source telling The Independent that a transition to Burnham is being discussed for September.
For UK readers, this matters because it will directly affect the direction of the government. Starmer’s downfall is partly linked to policy failures on immigration and energy, issues that Trump highlighted and that resonate with voters. Burnham is seen as a better communicator than Starmer, but policy differences may be small. However, a change in leadership could shift Labour’s approach on key issues such as North Sea oil, which Trump criticised Starmer for not supporting. There is also the international dimension: Starmer’s relationship with Trump broke down over the UK’s refusal to get more involved in the US-Israel war on Iran, with Trump calling him “no Winston Churchill.” A Burnham government might recalibrate that relationship, though the new PM would still face the same challenges of balancing US ties with domestic priorities.
Q: Why is Keir Starmer resigning? Starmer is resigning because he lost the support of his party after Andy Burnham’s landslide by-election win in Makerfield. Cabinet members and MPs have been pushing him to set a resignation timetable, and he is expected to announce his departure on Monday to avoid a formal leadership challenge.
Q: Who is Andy Burnham? Andy Burnham is the former mayor of Greater Manchester who won the Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026. He is now an MP and is widely expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, with some sources saying he could become prime minister as early as September.
Q: What happens next in the Labour leadership contest? Starmer is expected to announce his resignation on Monday, and a transition to Burnham is being discussed for September. Burnham already has the nominations needed to trigger a leadership challenge, but a formal contest may be avoided if Starmer steps aside and Burnham is elected unopposed.
What happens next is still uncertain, but the timeline is becoming clearer. Starmer is expected to make a statement on Monday setting out his departure plan. A handover to Burnham could take place in September, allowing Starmer to “secure his legacy,” as one source told The Independent. Until then, Starmer remains prime minister, but his authority is shattered. The Labour Party will now have to decide whether to hold a full leadership election or simply coronate Burnham as the next leader of the party and the country.