The Labour Party is hurtling towards a potential leadership contest, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowing to fight any challenge and at least two prominent figures—Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting—waiting in the wings. The drama has unfolded after a historically bad set of local election results for Labour last month, in which the party lost control of the Welsh Senedd and nearly 1,500 councillors in England. Now, the fate of the prime minister could hinge on a single by-election in the northwest of England.
At its simplest, a Labour leadership contest is the process by which the party chooses its leader—and, by extension, the country's prime minister when Labour is in government. The current leader, Keir Starmer, won a landslide general election victory in 2024, securing a massive majority. But after a series of setbacks, including poor local election results and the resignations of several ministers, pressure has been mounting for him to step down. Starmer, however, has told supporters he will stand in any contest that is triggered, insisting he has a mandate he is determined to deliver. A leadership challenge has not yet been formally launched, but the pieces are falling into place.
“Explains the Labour leadership contest, key players, and what it means for UK politics.”
The immediate trigger is the Makerfield by-election on 18 June. This seat became vacant after the previous Labour MP resigned, and Andy Burnham—the Mayor of Greater Manchester—is the Labour candidate. Burnham has made no secret of his ambitions: on BBC Question Time on 4 June, he said that if Wes Streeting has launched a leadership contest, he would “seek to join it”. Streeting, a former health secretary and one of the ministers who quit the government after the local elections, has confirmed he would enter any potential contest. Crucially, Burnham must win the by-election to become an MP; if he does, he would be eligible to stand for the leadership. The prime minister's resolve to fight means a full-blown contest is looking more likely.
This situation has deep roots. The Labour Party's leadership rules allow a challenge if 20% of its MPs (around 60) submit a letter of no confidence to the chair of the parliamentary party. If that threshold is met, a leadership election is triggered. As the sitting leader, Starmer would automatically be on the ballot for party members to vote on. The process typically takes several weeks. The last time Labour changed a leader while in government was in 1976, when Harold Wilson resigned and Jim Callaghan won the subsequent contest.
For UK readers, the outcome matters deeply. A change in leadership could mean a shift in policy. Pro-drilling Labour MPs believe that ousting Starmer could reverse the ban on new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, a policy championed by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. Both Burnham and Streeting have suggested they would be open to new exploration licences to ease domestic price and supply pressures. Starmer, meanwhile, is reportedly thinking about his legacy, talking about tech regulation and resetting relations with the EU and defence. Beyond policy, a leadership contest would inject a period of uncertainty into British politics at a time when the government faces many challenges, from the cost of living to public service reform.
Here are answers to some common questions:
Q: How does a Labour leadership challenge work? A challenge begins when 20% of Labour MPs (about 60) submit letters of no confidence to the party's governing body. If that threshold is reached, a ballot of party members is held. The current leader, Keir Starmer, would automatically be on the ballot. Candidates need the support of a certain number of MPs to be nominated; the winner is the candidate who gets more than 50% of the vote.
Q: Who are the main candidates in a potential contest? The two most prominent candidates are Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester and Labour's candidate in the Makerfield by-election, and Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary who resigned after the local elections. Starmer has said he will fight any challenge, so he would also be on the ballot.
Q: What would change if Starmer is ousted? A new leader could reverse some of Starmer's key policies. For example, both Burnham and Streeting have signalled they would be open to new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea, overturning the current ban. A change at the top could also affect the government's approach to EU relations, defence, and tech regulation.
What happens next depends heavily on the Makerfield by-election on 18 June. If Burnham wins, he will become an MP and be in a position to launch a leadership bid. Streeting has already said he would enter a contest, and Burnham has indicated he would join. The coming weeks will be critical: will enough MPs submit no-confidence letters to force a vote? No 10 has insisted that the prime minister will not walk away from his mandate, but the ground is shifting. For now, all eyes are on Wigan.