The Labour Party is edging closer to a full-blown leadership contest. Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, has said for the first time that he would seek to enter any contest triggered against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Burnham must first win the Makerfield by-election on 18 June to return to Parliament, a necessary step for any challenger. His declaration, made on a special BBC Question Time programme, has hardened Starmer's position: the Prime Minister has told supporters he will fight any challenge, not walk away.
At the heart of this is a process set out by Labour's rulebook. To force a leadership contest, a challenger must be a sitting MP and secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs—the threshold to trigger a ballot. Starmer, as the incumbent leader, automatically appears on the ballot unless he withdraws. Burnham is not yet an MP; he resigned from Parliament in 2017 to focus on his mayoral role. The by-election in Makerfield, called after Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down, is widely seen as a vehicle for Burnham's return. Once elected, he would need to gather the required signatures from parliamentary colleagues within a short window.
“Explains the Labour leadership contest rules and the potential challenge to Keir Starmer.”
This situation has been building for weeks. Labour suffered a historically bad set of local election results last month, losing control of the Welsh Senedd and nearly 1,500 councillors in England. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting quit the government and has confirmed he would enter any contest. Streeting has encouraged voters to back Burnham in Makerfield, saying he wants "a proper contest with the best candidates on the field." Senior ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy and Attorney General Richard Hermer, have publicly backed Starmer, arguing he has a mandate from the 2024 general election. But behind the scenes, cabinet sources are war-gaming how quickly Burnham could launch a challenge—possibly within a fortnight of the by-election, according to the i Newspaper.
For UK readers, this matters because a leadership contest would plunge the government into uncertainty. Starmer won a landslide majority only two years ago, but poor results and internal discontent have eroded his authority. A new leader could mean significant policy shifts, especially on devolution, public spending, and the government's approach to issues like crime and the economy. Burnham has positioned himself as a candidate who prioritises "point-scoring before problem-solving" and has promoted a "Manchesterism" approach to governance. The outcome could reshape the Labour Party's direction and affect the stability of the government at a time of economic and social challenges.
Key questions answered
Q: How does a Labour leadership contest work? A challenger must be an MP and get the support of at least 81 Labour MPs to trigger a ballot. The sitting leader is automatically on the ballot unless they withdraw. Party members then vote to choose the winner.
Q: What happens if Burnham wins the by-election? If Burnham wins on 18 June, he would be an MP and could immediately start seeking the 81 endorsements needed for a challenge. Cabinet ministers expect him to declare his candidacy within a fortnight, possibly by the end of June or early July.
Q: Why is Burnham challenging Starmer? Burnham has not given a detailed policy rationale, but he criticised "point-scoring before problem-solving" in Westminster. The Labour Party's poor local election results, including losing control of the Welsh Senedd, have fuelled discontent. Burnham sees himself as a leader who can restore trust and deliver change.
What happens next The immediate focus is the Makerfield by-election on 18 June. If Burnham wins, the clock starts ticking. He must quickly assemble the necessary MP backing to trigger a formal challenge. Starmer has vowed to fight and will automatically be on the ballot. The next few weeks will reveal whether there is enough support for a contest and, if so, how long the process takes.