Sir Keir Starmer has announced he is standing down as prime minister after less than two years, and the race to replace him could see Andy Burnham become the next occupant of Number 10 as early as 17 July.
The immediate trigger was a loss of support among Labour MPs, but the transition process is now underway. Starmer met Burnham on 23 June for the first time since Burnham won the Makerfield by-election the previous week. The prime minister has authorised “access talks” with civil servants for prospective Labour leadership candidates, usually granted to opposition party leaders before a general election. These will begin as soon as possible and before formal nominations close on 16 July, covering the formation of government, key policy priorities and security briefings. Starmer has also agreed to suspend major policy and spending decisions until a new PM is in place.
“Explains Andy Burnham's path to become PM after Starmer's resignation.”
Andy Burnham is the only candidate to have emerged so far. The former Greater Manchester mayor returned to Parliament after winning the Makerfield by-election, which was seen as a crucial test of Labour’s viability. Analysts described his victory – with 54% of the vote – as “reanimating the corpse of Labour” and uniting the party’s left and moderate wings behind a “blokey but unthreatening, common-sense progressivism”. Burnham has committed to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules and Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise the main rates of income tax, VAT or National Insurance, limiting his ability to raise significant sums from tax. He is due to give a series of speeches starting with one on devolution and the economy.
For UK readers, the key question is what a Burnham government would mean. He has promised a shift in approach from Starmer, with a focus on “changing the way this country is run” and “coming together”. His religious background – Catholic by upbringing, though he describes himself as “not particularly religious” – has also drawn attention. He has said “Catholic social teaching underpins my politics” and has spoken in favour of assisted dying in principle, despite the Church’s opposition. Politically, he faces the same fiscal constraints as Starmer, leading some to argue he would be “Starmer with better comms”. But his by-election win and the lack of a rival candidate suggest he could become PM without a full contest.
Q: How did Andy Burnham become the frontrunner for prime minister? By winning the Makerfield by-election on 16 June 2026 with 54% of the vote, Burnham demonstrated he could revive Labour’s fortunes in a previously safe seat where the party’s brand had become unpopular. He then secured face-to-face talks with outgoing PM Starmer and access to civil service briefings, while no other Labour candidate has yet come forward.
Q: What are access talks and why do they matter? Access talks allow prospective leaders to receive security briefings and prepare for government formations and key policy priorities. They are normally granted to opposition party leaders before a general election, but Starmer has authorised them for Labour leadership candidates to ensure an “orderly” transition. For Burnham, this means he can start planning policy and appointments before formally becoming PM.
Q: When will the UK have a new prime minister? If no other candidate enters the Labour leadership contest before nominations close on 16 July, Burnham could become PM as early as 17 July. The exact date depends on whether a formal contest is needed; if Burnham runs unopposed, he could be crowned swiftly.
What happens next is a series of speeches by Burnham on devolution and the economy, the formal closure of leadership nominations on 16 July, and the subsequent handover of power. Starmer has said he will “seek to resolve difficult issues in the coming weeks to support his successor” and make the transition as easy as possible. If a contest does occur, it would extend the timeline, but for now the path to a Burnham premiership appears clear.