Andy Burnham is on course to win the Makerfield by-election this Thursday, according to leaked polling that shows the Greater Manchester Mayor with a commanding lead over his rivals. The survey, which suggests Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd is taking 8% of the vote, has sparked claims that the right-wing insurgent party is splitting the Tory-Reform vote and handing the seat to Labour.
‘It’s ludicrous to suggest that Restore will split the right-wing vote and hand the seat to Labour,’ former Tory MP Andrew Bridgen told Metro. Bridgen, who joined Restore when it officially became a party in March, dismissed the idea that his party was there to prop up Nigel Farage’s Reform. ‘Restore is a political party, it’s there to stand in elections. It’s not there to prop up Nigel Farage and Reform. A lot of people do not like Nigel Farage. They do not trust him, he is not trustworthy.’
“Leaked poll puts Andy Burnham ahead in Makerfield by-election, with Restore taking 8% and splitting right-wing vote.”
The leaked polling, which Burnham’s victory would pave the way for a challenge to prime minister Sir Keir Starmer, places Burnham on 45% according to a More in Common survey for the Sunday Times, with Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40% and Shepherd on 8%. An Opinium poll for the Independent puts Burnham on 46%, Kenyon on 41%, and Shepherd on 7%. Bridgen insisted much of Restore’s support was coming from ‘disillusioned non-voters’, not from Reform or Labour. ‘Around 48% of Makerfield’s electorate didn’t vote last time,’ he said. ‘So you can win an election in this country by getting people who’ve given up on politics to go and vote.’
The party has the backing of tech billionaire Elon Musk, who publicly endorsed Restore last month. That intervention prompted Farage to warn Musk that Burnham would be ‘delighted’ with his outburst. Farage told the Telegraph: ‘Elon Musk has decided he will try to split the right of British politics as best he can. This is supporting a party that’s one man with a social media account. Quite what he’s trying to achieve, I have no idea.’
Bridgen rubbished that characterisation, insisting that Restore’s support in Makerfield was not being siphoned from Reform. ‘The people that I am seeing voting for Restore, a lot of them have already given up on politics, including a lot of activists,’ he said. ‘They are not from Reform or the Labour Party. They are people who have given up on politics and realise we are in a desperate situation.’ He later conceded that some support had come from ‘disillusioned’ Labour and Reform voters, but insisted it would not affect the result. A victory for Burnham would strengthen his position as a potential challenger to Starmer for the Labour leadership.