The candidates in the Makerfield by-election have been campaigning relentlessly on local issues – flooding, policing, housing. But Gary Gibbon, Channel 4 News political editor, asks: has there ever been a by-election with more national significance?
Labour candidate Andy Burnham has made it clear that if he wins, he wants to replace Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. And polls now indicate the contest is a two-horse race between him and Reform UK.
“Andy Burnham's by-election bid could be a springboard to challenge Keir Starmer, polls show.”
An internal Labour poll, reported by the Daily Mail, shows a Right-wing rival on 13% – the Restore Britain party candidate, splitting Reform UK's support. That could gift Burnham victory in the seat.
The Greater Manchester mayor is seeking a return to Westminster before launching a bid to oust Starmer. The by-election, triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, has become a proxy battle for the future of the Labour leadership.
Burnham’s campaign has focused on local concerns, but the national implications are impossible to ignore. If he wins, he will immediately become a challenger to Starmer’s leadership. If Reform UK pulls off a shock, it would be a devastating blow to Labour.
The polls suggest a tight race, with Burnham’s path to victory potentially eased by the Right-wing vote being split. The Restore Britain candidate’s 13% share, according to the internal Labour poll, comes at the expense of Reform UK.
Voters in Makerfield go to the polls this week, delivering a verdict that could reshape British politics. For Burnham, it is more than a by-election – it is the first step towards Number 10.