Andy Burnham swept to victory in the Makerfield by-election on Friday morning, promising “a change in our politics to make it work again for people.” But behind the scenes, the man once tipped to be his chancellor, Ed Miliband, may be falling out of favour.
The energy secretary, who led Labour between 2010 and 2015, has been regarded by many MPs and bookmakers as the frontrunner to succeed Rachel Reeves if Burnham becomes prime minister. The two men are longstanding political allies, having served together in Gordon Brown’s cabinet before the 2010 election. They have been in regular contact in recent weeks, including one-to-one phone calls about policy during the Makerfield campaign, according to three Burnham allies.
“Ed Miliband's path to chancellor under Andy Burnham is threatened by tensions over North Sea oil and gas policy.”
Yet several sources told *The i Paper* that Burnham may have cooled on the idea of appointing Miliband. While Miliband is popular among Labour members – frequently topping polls of the most popular cabinet minister – he is less popular with the public.
A more concrete fault line is emerging over North Sea oil and gas. Miliband has spearheaded the Labour government’s ban on new exploration licenses for fossil fuels and championed a windfall tax on North Sea profits. Burnham, who supports net zero as “an opportunity for reindustrialisation,” told *The New Statesman* during the campaign that he kept “something of an open mind” on North Sea oil and gas. “He holds, he said, no ‘fixed position.’”
The potential clash over energy policy could prove decisive. Miliband believes ordinary voters are “so angry” because “the country is rigged against them,” as he told a union event in London in February. Burnham, for his part, used his victory speech to promise to “make it work again for people.” Both men share a diagnosis of what ails Britain, but their prescriptions may diverge.
Meanwhile, Miliband’s immediate loyalty remains with the besieged prime minister, Keir Starmer. A spokesperson for Miliband told POLITICO he has “no plans to resign.” But the energy secretary is influential among Labour backbenchers and members, and his moves over the coming days could seal his leader’s fate. If Starmer does not signal willingness to stand aside, Miliband may face a decision that reshapes not only his own future but the direction of a potential Burnham government.