Sir Keir Starmer's resignation has fired the starting gun on the race to be in charge of the UK's finances, with Andy Burnham, the newly elected Makerfield MP, almost certain to become prime minister. Burnham is expected to want a new chancellor to replace Rachel Reeves, and the in-tray is daunting: high debt, low growth, welfare reform, defence spending, and the economic fallout from the US-Israel war with Iran.
Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader and current energy secretary, is now the bookmakers' strong favourite for the number two job in British politics. Politically closer to Burnham than other rivals, Miliband's candidacy has drawn sharply divided reactions.
“Ed Miliband is bookmakers' favourite to replace Rachel Reeves as chancellor after Keir Starmer's resignation.”
Paul Johnson, former director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, sees the closeness as a positive. "You really don't want people in Number 10 and Number 11 having very different views," he says. Nick Macpherson, the former permanent secretary at the Treasury, told the Financial Times: "The key to gaining the confidence of the markets is to articulate, implement and deliver a coherent strategy. Miliband is one of the few cabinet members with the intellect, experience, and authority to do that."
But others view Miliband as an inflation risk, believing his drive for net zero as energy secretary partly responsible for the UK's high energy prices. Analysts say that reputation, whether accurate or not, could affect how bond markets react to his time as chancellor.
Lord Richard Walker, the boss of Iceland and the government's cost-of-living tsar, warned Miliband would be "a disaster" in the role, saying he had been "far too ideological" about tackling climate change and that his policies were "putting unfair pressure on households... in a very regressive way". Sharon Graham, head of the Unite union, said Miliband as chancellor would be a "noose around the neck" of job creation because of his opposition to new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.
However, the TSSA union backs Miliband, with the Labour-affiliated rail union saying he would be willing to take a "different approach" to "delivering an economy that works for everyone".
Wes Streeting, a former contender for the Labour leadership, was the early favourite for chancellor, with suggestions that he could be awarded the job for coming out and backing Burnham and withdrawing his own ambitions. Economist and cross-bench peer Lord Jim O'Neill has also been mentioned, though his prospects remain unclear.
The race is far from over, but Miliband's strong political alignment with the incoming prime minister has made him the one to beat.