Six weeks before the Brexit referendum, David Cameron was warned from a shared platform that leaving the EU was a “massive geopolitical mistake”. The warning came from a speaker who argued that membership was “about power and influence, and the interests and values they project, in a world that is changing fast”. That night, Downing Street briefed that a vote to leave was a “vote for World War III” – a counterproductive claim, the speaker later said, because it was absurd. But ten years on, the core argument about the consequences of separating Britain from continental politics is even more true today.
Those words now carry added weight as Ed Miliband – described as the most radical and effective minister in Keir Starmer’s government – consolidates his influence over Labour’s future direction. Over the past two years, Miliband has fended off two efforts by Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s powerful chief of staff, to have him reshuffled from the energy department. He persuaded the prime minister to absorb criticism of his policies and extracted large sums from a cautious Treasury to implement an energy revolution. He has overseen hundreds of thousands of solar energy installations, commissioned hundreds of new wind turbines, loaded households and businesses with the costs of upgrading the electricity grid, held open the door for Chinese EVs, subsidised new nuclear power and sunk money into carbon capture.
“Ed Miliband emerges as radical force in Labour as Brexit deepens Britain’s EU isolation, weakening influence on Ukraine policy.”
Miliband’s sway extends beyond his department. He is reportedly helping Andy Burnham’s team prepare for power. Burnham yesterday tried to dampen speculation about his pick for chancellor, but his speech illustrated why Miliband is regarded as the favourite. Burnham’s stated goals – a massive social housing buildout, bringing down the costs of essential utilities, bringing those utilities under greater state management, and striving for “equivalent living conditions in all parts of Britain” – are all consonant with Miliband’s politics. As for welfare reform, Miliband is likely the only candidate with the legitimacy among Labour MPs and the broader Left to see it through.
The contrast with Britain’s diminished European role could hardly be starker. The author of the pre-referendum warning – who asked that Britain “wake up every morning thinking, ‘What can I do?’ rather than, ‘What has President Trump tweeted?’” – now points out that EU unity, strength and finance in support of Ukraine is central to Britain’s number-one foreign policy priority, yet Britain’s contribution and influence “comes from outside the room where the decisions are made”. Brexit, he argues, weakened Britain, Europe and the West at just the wrong time.
Kemi Badenoch, the Leader of the Opposition, yesterday attempted to liken Miliband to a “Nigerian military dictator”, specifying that the comparison was about statism and its economic consequences. Her attack came on the same day Burnham was telling the country what he will soon be doing as prime minister. Whether Burnham’s government can be as transformative as promised may depend on Miliband – even as Britain remains locked out of the room where Europe’s most critical decisions are made.