Only two vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday – a bulk carrier and a tanker – according to ship-tracking data checked by BBC Verify, despite Donald Trump’s declaration that ships were “starting to move” through the waterway he called “totally safe, secure and pristine”. The US president’s social media post heralding the framework deal with Iran said: “Let the oil flow!” Yet three months after the US and Israel began their war with Iran, the strait – closed to most shipping since 28 February – remains largely blocked. Hundreds of vessels are stuck in the gulf, with the risk of sea mines or drone strikes preventing safe passage.
Oil prices have dropped and stock markets enjoyed a cautious rally as the agreement raised hopes of easing the conflict that sent global oil prices soaring. But Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, warned that it remained to be seen whether the deal “represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement”. He said it would “take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels”, adding that tankers are in the wrong place, production facilities need to ramp up, and questions over insurance will persist.
“Only two vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday despite Trump's claim that shipping was resuming.”
Denmark’s Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, has five ships stuck in the Gulf and said it was too early to assess how the agreement “will impact logistics”. German rival Hapag-Lloyd has four ships trapped in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared. Even during the ongoing ceasefire, shipping companies were largely reluctant to move their vessels, and getting them out is now the first focus.
“Ships are starting to move,” Trump declared on Monday, “loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz.” But BBC Verify’s tracking data shows traffic levels remain low, with only two vessels exiting since Sunday. The question hanging over the deal is whether, as Shearing put it, it will bring a durable settlement or merely a fragile truce – and how long it will take for the world’s oil lifeline to truly reopen.