Fuel prices are falling across the UK after the US and Iran signed a framework deal to end their war, sending oil prices back to where they stood before the conflict began on 28 February — and motoring groups say drivers should expect more relief at the pumps in the coming weeks.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, slipped below $72.48 (£55) a barrel on Friday, according to analysts — the same level as the day before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran. It had peaked above $120 during the conflict and was still around $76 after the deal was announced, before continuing its slide.
“UK petrol prices drop as oil falls to pre-Iran-war levels, but still £10.50 more per tank than February.”
At the petrol station, the effect is already visible. The average price of a litre of petrol fell 2p in a week to 151.98p on Friday, while diesel dropped 4p to 168.64p, the RAC said. Petrol had reached a war-time high of 159.53p on 28 May, and diesel peaked at 191.54p on 15 April.
Simon Williams, the RAC's head of policy, said: “Fuel prices are falling steadily in reaction to the drop in the price of oil and wholesale petrol and diesel costs which is good news for drivers who’ve had a torrid time at the pumps this year. But our analysis of wholesale data shows the reduction should be faster and greater, particularly for diesel. Drivers really ought to see average prices of below 150p for unleaded and below 160p for diesel in the next week or so.”
The AA echoed the optimism, saying it expects pump prices to fall further and that “the timing is perfect for the start of the summer holidays”.
Yet despite the recent falls, filling up still costs significantly more than before the war. The RAC calculates it now costs £83.59 to fill a typical 55-litre family car with petrol and £92.75 for diesel — £10.50 and £14.40 more respectively than at the end of February.
The war had disrupted the production and transportation of energy across the Middle East, causing volatile swings in crude prices. Analysts note that every $10 increase in the oil price pushes up pump prices by roughly 7p a litre, and the recent $48 plunge from peak to current levels has driven the decline.
Even so, prices remain below the record levels of summer 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when petrol hit 191.5p and diesel 199p per litre. With the US-Iran framework deal holding and summer demand approaching, drivers may yet see further savings — but the journey back to pre-war normality is not over.