Motorists are already seeing cheaper fuel after the US and Iran struck an agreement to end their war, with further falls expected in the coming weeks. The AA said the timing was “perfect for the start of the summer holidays”, while the RAC argued reductions “should be faster and greater, particularly for diesel”.
When the conflict began on 28 February, fuel costs jumped as the war significantly disrupted the production and transportation of energy across the Middle East. The price of a barrel of Brent crude – the global benchmark – peaked at above $120, having been about $70 before the conflict. But in recent weeks prices have slipped, and after the framework deal was signed, Brent fell to around $76 a barrel. It has continued to drop, at one point falling below $72.48 – the price on the day before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
“UK petrol prices fall to pre-war levels after US-Iran deal, with further cuts expected.”
According to the RAC, petrol reached an Iran‑war peak of 159.53p a litre on 28 May, while diesel hit 191.54p on 15 April. Since 28 May, prices have come down. On Friday 26 June the average price of petrol had fallen 2p in a week to 151.98p, and diesel by 4p to 168.64p. That means it now costs £83.59 to fill a 55‑litre family car with petrol and £92.75 for diesel – though that is still £10.50 and £14.40 more than before the conflict.
Simon Williams, the RAC’s head of policy, said: “Fuel prices are falling steadily in reaction to the drop in the price of oil and wholesale petrol and diesel costs, which is good news for drivers who’ve had a torrid time at the pumps this year. But our analysis of wholesale data shows the reduction should be faster and greater, particularly for diesel. Drivers really ought to see average prices of below 150p for unleaded and below 160p for diesel in the next week or so.”
Despite the conflict, petrol and diesel prices remained below the levels reached in the summer of 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when petrol hit 191.5p a litre and diesel 199p. Analysts say every $10 increase in the oil price pushes up pump prices by roughly 7p a litre. With crude now back near pre‑war levels, drivers are hoping the wholesale savings will finally reach the forecourt.