Nigel Farage stood in a video clip posted online, his face a picture of disappointment. His party, Reform UK, had just been crushed in the Makerfield by-election, finishing more than 9,000 votes behind Labour's Andy Burnham. For a party that had swept all the council seats in the constituency just weeks earlier, it was a humbling blow – and one that has exposed deep internal fractures, including what a senior party figure calls a "woman problem".
Makerfield, a constituency near Wigan that Labour has held for over a century, became the stage for a contest that was about far more than a single seat. Reform UK had chosen it as a high-profile target, hoping to defeat Burnham and cement its credentials as the main challenger to Labour at the next general election. But instead, Burnham increased Labour's majority. Reform's candidate, Robert Kenyon – a self-employed plumber and local councillor – was heavily criticised for crude social media remarks about women, and he even called himself a "sexist". Farage dismissed the criticism as "pub talk", but the result suggests voters disagreed.
“Reform UK's by-election defeat exposes internal divisions”
The defeat has triggered an internal autopsy. Reform turned down invitations to appear on Sunday morning politics shows, including its preferred channel GB News, with a spokesman saying they only appear if the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg show invites them – which it didn't. Behind the scenes, party board member and former communications director Gawain Towler published a substack essay warning that Makerfield was a "wake-up call". He admitted Reform has a "woman problem", writing: "Robert Kenyon arrived carrying a decade of online remarks about women. The party chose to wave this away as banter... I lost count of being told about Reform-minded women, women who wanted to vote for us, who would not in the end put a cross beside a man who had said those things."
Towler's intervention is significant because it highlights a broader issue: Reform's difficulty in broadening its appeal beyond its core, often male-dominated base. The party also lost votes on its right flank to Restore Britain, founded by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which finished third on a promise of "the most ambitious programme of mass deportations ever seen in Britain". Farage pleaded with Restore voters to return to Reform, insisting his party is the "challenger party to the left in this country".
Why does this matter for UK readers? Reform UK is currently polling around 27 per cent – down from 31 per cent last autumn – and remains a serious force. But the Makerfield result suggests it is not invincible. The high turnout of nearly 59 per cent, more than six points higher than the 2024 general election, did not automatically benefit the radical right as some feared. Instead, Burnham's victory showed that anti-Reform voters can coalesce behind a strong opponent. Crucially, Burnham is now expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership, making by-elections in seats like Makerfield a proxy for the future of the Labour Party itself.
For Reform, the defeat raises uncomfortable questions about candidate selection, policies, and whether its aggressive rhetoric – particularly on immigration and "mass deportations" – is turning off middle-ground voters. There are even claims that pressure is building on Farage to sideline his home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf, whose "mass deportation" language is believed to be off-putting. Though Farage remains the favourite for the next election, the party's habit of picking controversial candidates – like Kenyon and Matt Goodwin in earlier contests – may be costing it support.
Q: What is Reform UK? Reform UK is a right-wing political party led by Nigel Farage, founded from the remnants of the Brexit Party. It has risen rapidly in the polls, partly by tapping into frustration with the main parties and calling for tighter immigration controls.
Q: Why did Reform lose the Makerfield by-election? Reform lost because Labour's Andy Burnham increased his majority, despite high anti-Starmer sentiment. The party's candidate, Robert Kenyon, was dogged by sexist social media posts, which alienated some female voters. It also lost around 2,000 votes to the right-wing rival Restore Britain, splitting the anti-Labour vote.
Q: What is Reform's "woman problem"? Senior party figures have admitted that Reform has difficulty appealing to women. The selection of candidates like Kenyon, who made crude remarks about women, has been cited as a key reason. Gawain Towler wrote that the party's dismissal of such behaviour as "banter" cost it votes on the doorstep.
What happens next? Reform will conduct an internal review of its candidate selection and messaging. Farage faces pressure to broaden his party's appeal, especially to women, while fending off competition from Restore Britain on his right. The next general election, likely within two years, will be the ultimate test of whether Reform can turn protest votes into seats.