The hard-right Restore Britain party, led by Great Yarmouth MP Rupert Lowe, is running in its first parliamentary by-election in Makerfield this Thursday — and polls suggest it could determine the outcome. Two new surveys put Restore candidate Rebecca Shepherd at 7% or 8% of the vote, with Labour’s Andy Burnham on 45-46% and Reform’s Robert Kenyon on 40-41%. If a similar result emerges on Friday morning, it could signal trouble ahead for Reform leader Nigel Farage, facing a serious threat from his party’s right for perhaps the first time.
The by-election has been described as one of the most consequential in recent British history. Burnham, currently serving as Mayor of Greater Manchester, is poised to challenge Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister if he wins. He has made much of the Westminster political class being out of touch with places beyond Whitehall, populated by people of privilege who attended private schools and Oxbridge.
“Restore Britain's 7-8% could decide Makerfield by-election, tipping between Labour's Burnham and Reform's Kenyon.”
Election guru Sir John Curtice told the Independent that Restore could “make the difference between Reform winning or not winning”. The official Reform UK account acknowledged Restore for the first time last month with the slogan “Vote Restore, get Burnham”. Yet it is unclear if Restore voters would otherwise vote Reform or simply stay home.
Restore was inspired by Lowe’s departure from Reform UK last year, with no love lost between him and Farage. Building off support from Elon Musk and Lowe’s large following on X, the party has positioned itself to the right of Reform on immigration. Its policies include rounding up and deporting all legally resident foreign nationals who cannot speak English or “fail to integrate”, and the abolition of the asylum system in its entirety.
The Mail on Sunday reported that activists canvassing for Restore in Makerfield had attended a white supremacist summit in Portugal two weeks ago. Allies of Burnham are said to be cautiously optimistic about his chances.
If Restore peels enough votes from Reform, Burnham could secure the seat — and a launchpad for a Labour leadership bid. But if Reform holds, the challenge from the right may only grow.