The aftermath of last week’s Ukrainian attack on Moscow – nearly 200 drones hitting several locations across the Russian capital – has underlined the pressure on the Kremlin. Now two countries on Nato’s eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible “provocation” in the Baltic states or Poland in an effort to test the cohesion of the western military alliance.
Western sources fear danger on the horizon because the Kremlin is coming under growing pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg. On Monday, Latvian intelligence said: “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” However, it would be well short of a full-scale attack.
“Nato warned Russia preparing provocation in Baltic states or Poland as Ukraine pressure mounts.”
A senior political source from a second Nato member made a similar statement last week, saying “we are picking up intelligence” that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”. They said Putin might be willing to test US support for some of Nato’s smallest member countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – in a desperate effort “to throw the dice” as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine.
Latvian intelligence said Russia was not capable of opening a second front, but was considering “hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will have your own problems”. Though the warnings appear linked, there was only limited supporting detail, unlike the detailed warnings released by the CIA and MI6 before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
But they come at a time when Russia’s advance in Ukraine has stalled, raising questions about whether the Kremlin would turn to alternative strategies to break the deadlock. Russia’s stock market has also plummeted in recent days, hitting a three‑year low, mounting further pressure on Putin. Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the Chatham House thinktank, said: “Moscow will be looking for ways to disrupt the current trend, through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or doing something elsewhere. We should not expect Russia to passively lose.”
Russia’s relative weakness was underlined this week when drone relay stations in Belarus stopped operating after Ukraine threatened to attack them. Volodymyr Zelenskyy had given Belarus a one‑week warning last Friday, saying the equipment enabled Russian attacks on his country. One Telegram channel reported that the Belarusian authorities in the Brest and Gomel regions had demanded mobile operators dismantle the repeaters because they were interfering with grouse nesting sites.
As Nato prepares for its annual summit in Ankara this month amid uncertainty about US commitment, the question remains: if Putin believes time is no longer on his side, will he escalate?