Vladimir Putin is facing a growing wave of discontent at home, with one-third of Russians now holding a negative view of how his economic policies are affecting the country – a figure that has turned negative for the first time since 2022, according to new polling by the NEST Centre.
The poll, which surveyed Russian citizens, found that just 15 per cent believe the president’s policies are having a positive impact. More than one-third of respondents said the economy had deteriorated in the past three months, while one in five gave a negative overall assessment of its state. The discontent is concentrated among poorer citizens on fixed incomes, voters aged 45 to 65, and those who get their news from social media. “So far, Putin has been successful in shielding the public from the impacts of the Ukraine war, but sustained economic decline will make this harder,” said Sergey Aleksashenko, head of economics at NEST Centre and Russia’s former deputy finance minister.
“One-third of Russians now criticise Putin's economic policies as war and sanctions bite.”
The economic strain comes as Moscow has dramatically scaled up defence spending to 40 per cent of the federal budget, with military spending reaching historic post-Cold War highs. The result is a heavily distorted economy that funnels resources towards the military-industrial complex and away from civilian sectors. Ukraine has been scaling up attacks on Russian oil refineries and ports, forcing Putin to divert more resources, directly affecting ordinary Russians.
Meanwhile, the war has deepened Russia’s dependence on China, raising fears among some in the intelligence services, government and business community that Putin is turning his country into a vassal state. When Putin met Xi Jinping last month, speculation that the energy crisis caused by Donald Trump’s Iran war might push China into a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline proved unfounded. The summit came and went with no agreement, despite Putin claiming the two sides were close to “a highly significant step forward in oil and gas co-operation”. The pipeline, which Russia has pushed for two decades, would deliver 50 billion cubic metres of gas to China via Mongolia.
Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council think-tank, told one of Russia’s biggest newspapers: “It’s absolutely essential for us to maintain an equal footing in our relations and to remember that Russia is a great power which cannot be a junior partner.” Vladimir Milov, an opposition politician and former deputy energy minister, told The i Paper that China was “arguably the number one practical security risk for us”, adding that many governing officials and businessmen had told him “that China is no friend. It’s more like our alliance is tactical.”