Scotland’s World Cup hopes have plummeted from 42% to just 5.26% in 24 hours after their 3-0 defeat to Brazil – a loss that has now sparked a formal complaint from the Brazilian Football Confederation to FIFA over a disallowed goal. The CBF’s letter, seen by Brazilian publication Estadao, cites Lionel Messi’s first goal for Argentina against Austria as evidence that VAR intervention should have been more consistent.
Vinicius Junior put Brazil ahead early, then appeared to double the lead in the 20th minute, only for a VAR review to rule he had fouled Jack Hendry. The CBF argues the decision “does not seem to align with the philosophy adopted throughout the competition”. An excerpt published by Estadao reads: “Our main interest is not to revisit individual decisions, but to ensure that the criteria governing VAR intervention are applied consistently, transparently and equally to all teams.” The letter also complains about the appointment of Mexican referee Cesar Arturo Ramos, pointing to a 2018 group-stage match against Switzerland where Brazil’s fury led to a previous official complaint.
“Scotland's World Cup hopes drop to 5.26% as Brazil complain to FIFA over disallowed goal in their 3-0 win.”
While Brazil’s complaint unfolds, Scotland are left clinging to a mathematical chance. Steve Clarke’s side finished Group J with three points and a goal difference of -3. To reach the last 32, they need at least four third-placed teams from the remaining eight groups to finish with a worse record. South Korea’s defeat by South Africa, Ecuador’s surprise win over Germany, and Sweden’s draw with Japan have all eroded Scotland’s chances. Opta now gives them a 5.26% probability – down from 6.89% after Paraguay’s stalemate with Australia.
Scotland require a complex set of results: Iraq must beat Senegal by no more than two goals; Croatia must lose to Ghana by at least three; DR Congo and Uzbekistan must draw, or Uzbekistan win by no more than three; and in Group J, where Austria and Algeria are both on three points, Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals or Austria to be beaten by at least four. Fail any of those, and Scotland’s first knockout appearance since 1998 will remain a dream.