In Aberdeen South, the Scottish Conservatives pulled off their first by-election victory since 1973, winning a seat that had been held by the SNP with a majority of nearly 4,000. The result sent shockwaves through Westminster and Holyrood – and it was all about oil and gas.
The basics are straightforward. On 19 June 2026, voters in Aberdeen South went to the polls after their MP, the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, resigned from the House of Commons (he had been elected to the Scottish Parliament in the devolved elections a month earlier). The Conservative candidate, Douglas Lumsden, took almost 50 per cent of the vote, well ahead of the SNP’s Richard Thomson on 28.6 per cent. Reform came third with 8.5 per cent, while Labour managed just 5.4 per cent. Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, campaigned heavily on protecting the industry, calling the by-election a “referendum on oil and gas”. Party leader Kemi Badenoch said the result “sends a message to the Labour government and the SNP that we will not be ignored”.
“A Tory win in Aberdeen South sends a message on oil and gas – what it means for jobs, net zero, and politics.”
Why did this by-election become such a flashpoint? The answer lies in the central role of the oil and gas sector in north-east Scotland. Aberdeen is the heart of the UK’s offshore energy industry, and the industry has been hit hard by the Labour government’s Energy Profits Levy, which requires operators to hand over 78 per cent of their profits to the Treasury. The sector has seen heavy reductions in investment and significant job losses – the industry claims it could lose as many as 1,000 jobs a month by 2030 unless policy changes. The SNP, which governs in Holyrood, has been divided on the issue, while Labour’s net zero agenda, championed by Ed Miliband, has fuelled anger among workers who fear for their livelihoods. The Tories, by contrast, spoke passionately about freeing the sector from “crushing taxes and tough regulations”.
For UK readers, this by-election matters because it is a vivid illustration of the political and economic tensions around the country’s energy transition. The UK is legally committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, but the path there is fiercely contested. Aberdeen South’s vote is a warning to both Labour and the SNP that voters in oil and gas communities will not accept policies that threaten jobs without a clear plan for alternative employment. It also puts pressure on the UK government to reconsider the Energy Profits Levy and its approach to domestic oil and gas production, especially at a time when energy security is a national concern. The result could influence future policy decisions, including the future of GB Energy, the publicly-owned energy company that the UK government has chosen to base in Aberdeen.
Q: What is a by-election? A by-election is an election held to fill a single vacant seat in a legislature, such as the House of Commons. They happen when an MP resigns, dies, or is disqualified, and are often seen as a test of public opinion between general elections.
Q: Why did the Conservatives win in Aberdeen South? The party focused its campaign on defending the oil and gas industry, which is central to the local economy. Voters were angry about Labour’s windfall tax and the SNP’s uncertainty on the issue. Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, was able to tap into that anger, and the Tories’ message resonated with a constituency that felt ignored by both Westminster and Holyrood.
Q: What does this mean for UK energy policy? The result is a clear signal that voters in oil and gas communities reject rapid net zero policies that threaten jobs. It may force Labour to rethink its Energy Profits Levy and its net zero timeline, and it puts pressure on the SNP to clarify its position. The victory could also embolden Conservative calls for a more gradual transition that protects existing industries.
What happens next? Douglas Lumsden will have to resign his seat in the Scottish Parliament because of a Holyrood ban on dual mandates – he cannot sit in both parliaments at once, and he was only re-elected as an MSP six weeks ago. The by-election is a blow to First Minister John Swinney, who admitted the Conservatives “mobilised a campaign which was about capturing the understandable anger” over oil and gas. The result also leaves Labour in a weak position in Scotland, finishing fourth in a seat it once held. The debate over the Energy Profits Levy and the future of the oil and gas sector will continue, with the UK government facing growing pressure to change course. And with more by-elections likely in the coming months, the political aftershocks of Aberdeen South are far from over.