On 19 June 2026, voters in two Scottish constituencies went to the polls in by-elections that delivered a shock result for the SNP and a historic win for the Scottish Conservatives. The Conservatives won Aberdeen South for the first time in more than 50 years, overturning an SNP majority of almost 4,000 votes, while the SNP held on to Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. The results have reignited debate about North Sea oil, dual mandates and the state of Scottish politics.
A by-election is a special election held between general elections when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant. In Scotland, the two by-elections on 19 June 2026 were triggered because the sitting MPs—Stephen Flynn for Aberdeen South and Stephen Gethins for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry—had been elected to the Scottish Parliament (Holyrood) in the May 2026 Scottish election. Under a Holyrood ban on dual mandates, an individual cannot simultaneously hold a seat in both parliaments, so they had to resign their Westminster seats. Flynn and Gethins were both SNP MPs who had won their seats at the 2024 general election. Flynn’s majority in Aberdeen South was 3,758 votes; Gethins’s majority in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was about 900 votes.
“The June 2026 Scottish by-elections delivered a historic Tory win in Aberdeen South and an SNP hold in Arbroath.”
The Aberdeen South by-election was won by Douglas Lumsden, a Conservative MSP who had been re-elected to Holyrood just six weeks earlier. He defeated SNP candidate Richard Thomson by 6,050 votes, securing 49.51% of the vote with 14,308 votes against Thomson's 8,258. The swing from SNP to Conservative was 14.69%. Reform UK came third with 2,478 votes. Turnout was just 38%. Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, said the result was a "referendum on the oil and gas industry" and that the people of Aberdeen had spoken "loud and clear" that the destruction of the oil and gas industry must stop now. The Conservatives had made the by-election a focal point for opposition to restrictions on North Sea drilling, party leader Kemi Badenoch visiting the constituency three times during the campaign. This was the first time the Conservatives had won a Westminster by-election in Scotland since 1967 (when they gained Glasgow Pollok from Labour) and the first by-election gain for the party in Scotland since 1973 (when they held Edinburgh North).
In Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, SNP candidate Lara Bird held the seat with a majority of more than 5,000 over the Conservatives. Bird, a qualified lawyer who has worked as an SNP researcher and adviser at Westminster, said voters had rejected "the politics of division and hate" and made it clear that Scotland's future "lies with independence". Labour slipped from second to fourth in that constituency, with Reform UK taking third.
Because of the dual-mandate ban, Lumsden must resign his Holyrood seat within 49 days. His replacement in the Scottish Parliament will be the next candidate on the Conservatives' North East Scotland list, Fraserburgh councillor James Adams. The by-elections were also notable for Labour's poor performance: the party came fourth in both Scottish contests, while simultaneously winning the Makerfield by-election in Greater Manchester, where Mayor Andy Burnham was elected, paving the way for him to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
The results have several implications for UK readers. First, they show that energy policy, particularly North Sea oil and gas, remains a powerful issue in parts of Scotland. The Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch have ditched previous net-zero targets and aggressively campaigned on defending the oil and gas industry, which appears to have resonated with voters in Aberdeen South. Second, the SNP's loss in a formerly safe seat came just six weeks after the party won a comfortable victory in the Scottish election, and it follows a scandal surrounding former chief executive Peter Murrell, who was convicted of theft of £400,000 in party funds. The result suggests some voters punished the SNP over that scandal. Third, Labour's decline in Scotland continues: after coming fourth in both by-elections, the party faces questions about its ability to recover north of the border.
Q: Why do by-elections happen in the UK? By-elections are held when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant between general elections, usually because the MP dies, resigns, or is disqualified. In Scotland, a by-election can also be triggered when an MP is elected to Holyrood and must resign under the dual-mandate ban introduced by the Scottish Parliament.
Q: What is the dual mandate ban? The Scottish Parliament banned individuals from simultaneously holding seats in both Holyrood and the House of Commons. This means that anyone elected to both parliaments must choose one and resign the other, prompting a by-election for the vacated seat.
Q: Why did the Aberdeen South result matter for the oil and gas industry? Aberdeen is the centre of the UK's North Sea oil and gas industry. The Conservative campaign focused heavily on opposing restrictions on new drilling, such as a ban on new exploration licences. Douglas Lumsden's victory was seen as a signal that voters in the region back the industry and oppose policies that would phase it out.
What happens next? Lumsden will resign his Holyrood seat within 49 days, triggering a by-election for his North East Scotland list seat. The SNP will need to regroup after losing Aberdeen South, while the Conservatives will hope to build on their momentum. Labour faces a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham after his Makerfield by-election win. The next key test for Scottish politics will likely be the next general election, due by 2029.