The Scottish Conservatives secured their first by-election win since 1973 on Thursday, taking Aberdeen South from the SNP in a result that Kemi Badenoch described as sending a message to both Labour and the SNP. The seat was vacated after SNP MP Stephen Flynn resigned from the House of Commons following his election to Holyrood, where he now serves as Economy Secretary. The Conservative candidate, Douglas Lumsden – a former oil and gas worker and sitting MSP who must now resign from Holyrood due to the ban on dual mandates – won with a majority of 6,000 and almost 50% of the vote. Labour managed just 5.4%, trailing behind Reform on 8.5%.
Speaking to jubilant party activists, Badenoch said: “I cannot tell you how thrilled I am to be able to welcome Douglas Lumsden to parliament.” She contrasted the result with the Makerfield by-election, where Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham won 55% of the vote, arguing: “The Makerfield by-election was about one man's job. The Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs all over the country but especially in the oil and gas sector.”
“Conservatives win Aberdeen South by-election, first Scottish Tory by-election win since 1973, in a vote seen as referendum on oil and gas.”
The Conservative leader, who made repeated visits to the constituency in the run-up to the vote, added: “Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour government and the SNP that we will not be ignored. The sector will not be ignored.” Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay described it as a “sensational victory” and declared: “This was a referendum on oil and gas.”
The result reflects deep anger in the north-east over the decline of the oil and gas industry, which the industry claims could lose 1,000 jobs a month by 2030 unless taxes and regulations are eased. The Tories campaigned passionately on freeing the sector from what they call crushing taxes – including the Energy Profits Levy, which forces operators to hand 78% of profits to the Treasury. First Minister John Swinney admitted he understood why the SNP lost, saying the Conservatives “mobilised a campaign which was about capturing the understandable anger there is in Aberdeen … about the issues affecting the oil and gas sector.” Swinney has urged Labour to scrap the levy.
Flynn, now a key figure in Swinney’s government, issued a statement that appeared to criticise his own party leadership, saying it was “a tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily.” Having previously lost the seat to the Tories in 2017 before winning it back in 2019, Flynn said he believed the SNP could “do so again, if we get things right.” The defeat comes as Swinney’s administration has been overshadowed by the scandal of Peter Murrell, the estranged husband of Nicola Sturgeon, who has pleaded guilty to stealing £400,000 from the SNP and awaits sentencing.