Andy Burnham’s likely victory in Thursday’s Makerfield by-election could trigger a chain of events ending with Sir Keir Starmer’s removal from No 10 – and the Prime Minister’s final attempt to placate his nemesis has already collapsed.
Within hours of Starmer telling Sky News that Burnham should ‘have a big role in government’ if he wins, a senior Labour source told the Manchester Evening News that the Greater Manchester mayor would turn down such an offer. ‘Burnham is resolutely focused on the top job,’ the source said.
“Starmer's offer of a big role to Burnham is rejected; Burnham is focused on becoming PM.”
The Prime Minister’s plea was aimed at his own MPs and party members, a promise that he could work with a man he is thought to strongly dislike. It was, according to the Metro, ‘his last roll of the dice’. But even before the by-election, the whispers in Westminster were hardening into a plan: if Burnham wins in Makerfield, top Cabinet members are expected to agitate for a swift transfer of power.
‘I’m not going to walk away, I am going to fight,’ Starmer told Sky News, insisting that winning the 2024 election gave him a five-year mandate. Yet the sense of a leader without political vision – ‘a man comfortable with minor tweaks when the country is desperate for all-caps CHANGE’ – has been compounded by the explosive resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey, who accused the PM of indecision that risked making the country less safe.
If Burnham returns to the Commons, he must resign the Greater Manchester mayoralty, triggering an immediate by-election. Reform UK expects to do well. The government has already laid a statutory instrument reverting mayoral elections to the supplementary vote system, which would allow Labour to benefit from second preferences of Green and Liberal Democrat voters – a move that could help the party hold the city, but only if it fields a candidate quickly.
The Labour National Executive Committee is considering a shortlist of one candidate to start campaigning almost immediately after Burnham’s win. ‘It will be the horrible hangover after the party if Andy wins in Makerfield,’ one Labour MP told the New Statesman.
Meanwhile, Brussels is pressing ahead with a planned summit on 22 July to agree deals on youth mobility, food and drink trade, and aligning carbon taxes – even if Starmer is replaced. EU sources made clear they expect Burnham, as prime minister, not to rip up compromises already negotiated. The UK’s inflation remained flat at 2.8% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics, with cheese and yoghurt prices falling but meat rising 2.3%.
For Starmer, the question is no longer whether he can survive a Burnham victory, but whether he can still influence what comes next. The answer, from his own party, is already in.