Andy Burnham’s blowout victory in the Makerfield by-election has delivered hope to at least one group: Labour MPs who were despondent about their future, convinced that Reform no longer looks unassailable. But for Keir Starmer, the result has plunged his premiership into its deepest crisis yet. This weekend the prime minister is talking to his cabinet, his staff and Labour MPs as his leadership hangs by a thread.
Starmer publicly insists he is not going to stand down and any potential successor must challenge and defeat him. “You can’t hand No 10 over to someone just because they ask you to. That’s not grown up,” an ally said. He sees no reason to vacate No 10 having won a decisive mandate only two years ago. The prime minister was on TV this morning confirming he will stand if there is a contest, and used a lunchtime call with Labour staff members to warn Andy Burnham against “plunging our party and our country into chaos”, though he did not mention the new Makerfield MP by name.
“Starmer refuses to resign after Burnham's by-election win, warning against 'chaos' as allies prepare for a leadership contest.”
Starmer, thanking staff for their work in the by-election, said the party needs to “pull together”, “take the fight” to Reform and “give them a hiding” in the Greater Manchester mayoralty contest. “The one thing we’ve got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement. That has never worked. That’s what the last government did. We need to learn that lesson.”
For now an uneasy standoff has developed. Burnham and his allies say they are giving the prime minister time to consider his future. Team Burnham is hoping Starmer will “come to his senses”, as one Burnham ally put it, on his own over the weekend without the messiness of mass resignations or a leadership challenge. The weekend is being seen as the “grace period” in which Starmer can mull his decision and choose to set out a timetable for his departure on his own terms. Cabinet ministers may speak to Starmer privately to urge him to go, as many have done before, and the number of Labour MPs calling for his departure will continue to rise. Both sides now look to the cabinet to play a crucial role: to either extend or cut short Starmer’s leadership.
Behind the scenes, Starmer-supportive MPs and aides have approached Labour MPs – particularly those with small majorities – to warn them that Burnham would call an early general election and would put them at risk of losing their seats. The prime minister’s allies have been arguing that ousting him would play into the hands of the right-wing press and parties who have wanted to see him brought down from day one. “The sense of duty has settled on Keir I think,” an ally said. He is determined to fight on.
Starmer has the nuts and bolts of a leadership campaign ready to go, including a “war chest” of £100k+ donations and a bank account ready to receive further funding. Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, wrote privately to cabinet ministers this week asking them to submit detailed reports of what their department has done to “improve the lives of working people”, due today (Friday). Cabinet ministers have interpreted that as an obvious signal that Starmer is preparing material for a contest, fought on the idea that he has delivered substantial changes for the country already. “He’s going to fight it. You get to the point where you’ve said it so many times,” an ally said.