Andy Burnham stormed to victory in the Makerfield by-election yesterday, securing 24,937 votes and easily defeating a field of more than a dozen candidates including Reform. The Greater Manchester mayor’s arrival in Parliament is a pivotal step in his plans to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party – and the country.
Starmer has clung to power since his party lost more than 1,400 councillors in May, a damning indictment of its drooping popularity among voters. Close to 100 Labour MPs have called on the PM to hand back the keys to Number 10, with his refusal pushing some cabinet ministers to quit.
“Andy Burnham's by-election victory intensifies pressure on Keir Starmer to resign as Labour leader.”
Team Burnham is hoping Starmer will “come to his senses”, as one Burnham ally puts it, without the messiness of mass resignations or a leadership challenge. Cabinet ministers may speak to Starmer privately to urge him to go, as many have done before, and the number of Labour MPs calling for his departure will continue to rise. The weekend is being seen as the “grace period” in which Starmer can mull his decision and choose to set out a timetable for his departure on his own terms.
But so far there are absolutely no indications from him that he is going anywhere. The Prime Minister was on TV this morning confirming he will stand if there is a contest, and used a lunchtime call with Labour staff members to warn Andy Burnham against “plunging our party and our country into chaos”, although he did not mention the new Makerfield MP by name.
Starmer, thanking staff for their work in the by-election, said the party needs to “pull together”, “take the fight” to Reform and “give them a hiding” in the Greater Manchester mayoralty contest, with a not-so-subtle warning for Burnham supporters: “The one thing we’ve got to avoid doing is plunging our party and our country into chaos by turning on each other and tearing apart our party and our movement. That has never worked. That’s what the last government did. We need to learn that lesson.”
Behind the scenes, Starmer-supportive MPs and aides have approached Labour MPs – particularly those with small majorities – to warn them that Burnham would call an early general election and would put them at risk of losing their seats. The Prime Minister’s allies have been arguing to party members and MPs that ousting him would be playing into the hands of the right-wing press and parties who have wanted to see Starmer brought down from day one.
“The sense of duty has settled on Keir I think,” an ally says. He is determined to fight on. “You can’t hand No 10 over to someone just because they ask you to. That’s not grown up.” He sees no reason why he should vacate No 10 having won a decisive mandate only two years ago.
Starmer has the nuts and bolts of a leadership campaign ready to go, including a “war chest” of £100k+ donations and a bank account ready to receive further funding. Anna Turley, chair of the Labour Party, wrote privately to cabinet ministers this week asking them to submit detailed reports of what their department has done to “improve the lives of working people”, due today (Friday). Cabinet ministers have interpreted that as an obvious signal that Starmer is preparing material for a contest, fought on the idea that he has delivered substantial changes for the country already.
“He’s going to fight it. You get to the point where you’ve said it so many times, and started…” the ally added, as Starmer told reporters: “I have said repeatedly, I am not going to walk away from a contest.”
If Starmer were to resign, the UK must have a Prime Minister at all times, so he would need to lead until a replacement is found. A Labour leadership election would be triggered, with Labour MPs voting to whittle down candidates until two remain, and then party members choosing the new leader, who automatically becomes PM. Burnham has reportedly secured support from at least 81 Labour MPs – or 20% – to formally trigger a leadership contest. The new MP has no plans to do so this week, with one insider saying Burnham’s team just hopes Starmer “comes to his senses”.
But with Starmer digging in and Burnham’s camp waiting, the question now is whether the weekend’s “grace period” will bring a resolution – or plunge Labour deeper into turmoil.