The third heatwave of 2026 is finally set to break this weekend – but forecasters warn that intense heat could return in the weeks ahead as climate change reshapes Britain’s weather.
Tuesday marked the 10th consecutive day that temperatures exceeded 30C somewhere in the UK, with Heathrow in London hitting 30.4C. So far this year, the Met Office has recorded 25 days over 30C – surpassing the 24 such days in the punishingly hot year of 1976, and now second only to the record of 34 set in 1995, with much of the summer still to go.
“Third UK heatwave ends this weekend as temperatures drop, but intense heat may return with climate change driving more extreme weather.”
Three scorching spells have brought record-breaking temperatures, an increase in fires and ill health effects. The heatwave followed what was provisionally the hottest June on record in England.
But the run of extreme heat is about to pause. In its latest Deep Dive forecast on YouTube, Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explained that a shift in high pressure would allow cooler air to circulate. “High pressure, by the end of this week, is drifting towards the north-west, and that’s going to allow something a little fresher to recirculate around the high pressure,” he said. “We’re talking by Saturday and Sunday, temperatures in the mid to high-20s rather than the low-30s.”
The Met Office forecasts highs of 29C in southern areas on Saturday, with 24C in the north, dropping to 25C and 22C respectively by Sunday. Highest temperatures this weekend are expected in Wales and the south-west, with the lowest in the east and north.
Sky News meteorologist Dr Christopher England said the current run of very high temperatures “will end this weekend, with the heatwave conditions confined to the South West by Saturday.” He added that while long-term forecasts are of limited accuracy, “the next few weeks look like being warmer than average, with the possibility of further hot spells in the South and West, particularly, so we may well see the return of 30C in places.”
The Met Office has said the UK’s climate of the 20th century “has now gone” and is still “on the move”, driven by human-caused climate change. Dr England noted that “Greater London now has four times as many days over 30C as we had during the last century.” Across the entire 20th century, there were just three days above 36C, yet three such days occurred in a single spell during the heatwave at the end of June – a trend the Met Office called “more frequent extreme heat.”
As the weekend approaches, BBC forecasters also expect temperatures to ease, with a chance of rain: Friday less warm with variable cloud, Saturday more cloud and possible drizzle along the North Sea coast, and Sunday mostly dry but with a chance of showers in western England.
The reprieve may be brief: forecasters say the possibility of further hot spells remains, with the summer far from over.