The Scottish Conservatives have won a Westminster by-election for the first time in more than half a century, seizing Aberdeen South from the SNP in a result hailed by Kemi Badenoch as a message to both Labour and the nationalists. The seat was vacated by the SNP's Stephen Flynn, who resigned from the Commons after being elected to Holyrood, where he now serves as Economy Secretary.
The Tory victory was secured by Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker and sitting MSP, who took almost half of all ballots cast – a majority of more than 6,000 votes over SNP candidate Richard Thomson. Labour came fourth with just 5.4 per cent of the vote, trailing behind Reform on 8.5 per cent. The result triggered immediate jubilation from party leaders, with Badenoch telling activists: “I cannot tell you how thrilled I am to be able to welcome Douglas Lumsden to parliament.”
“Scottish Tories win first Westminster by-election in 50 years, taking Aberdeen South from SNP with 50% of vote.”
Flanked on stage by Lumsden and Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay, Badenoch contrasted the Aberdeen South outcome with the contemporaneous Makerfield by-election, where Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham won 55 per cent of the vote. “The Makerfield by-election was about one man's job,” she said. “The Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs all over the country but especially in the oil and gas sector.” She added: “Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour government and the SNP that we will not be ignored. The sector will not be ignored.”
The by-election was widely viewed as a referendum on the future of North Sea oil and gas. The industry has faced steep taxes and tough regulations under the UK government's net zero agenda, and companies warn of up to 1,000 job losses a month by 2030 unless policy changes. Lumsden, who must resign his Holyrood seat just six weeks after winning re-election due to a ban on dual mandates, said his constituents had sent a message that “the destruction of the oil and gas industry must stop now”. Findlay described the result as a “sensational victory” and a “referendum on oil and gas”.
First Minister John Swinney acknowledged the anger driving the result. “The Conservatives mobilised a campaign which was about capturing the understandable anger there is in Aberdeen and the northeast about the issues affecting the oil and gas sector,” he said, pointing to his own efforts to persuade Labour to scrap the Energy Profits Levy, which forces operators to hand over 78 per cent of profits to the Treasury. Meanwhile, Flynn issued a statement described as a not-so-coded criticism of his party leadership: “It was a tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily.”
The Conservatives’ success in Aberdeen South was not mirrored elsewhere. The SNP held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, where Lara Bird won with a majority of more than 5,000 votes over the Tories. But the double defeat for Labour – fourth place in both Scottish contests – underscored the party’s failure to connect with voters in Scotland’s oil and gas heartland. Amy Cameron of Greenpeace UK warned that “false promises” from the Tories would not deliver a prosperous future, arguing that a just transition must be robust enough for people to “trust that the new economy will be ready to catch them”.
The result also carries national implications. Badenoch said her party “is working to earn the trust of the country again”, and Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has set him up to challenge Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership. Aberdeen, meanwhile, remains at the centre of the UK’s energy debate: the government has chosen the city as the home of its fledgling publicly-owned energy company, GB Energy. The question now is whether the message from Aberdeen South will force a shift in policy – or be ignored.