The Scottish Conservatives have won their first by-election since 1973, seizing Aberdeen South from the SNP in a result that Kemi Badenoch said sends a clear message to both Labour and the nationalists.
Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker and sitting MSP, took just under 50 per cent of the vote – well ahead of the SNP’s Richard Thomson on 28.6 per cent. Reform UK came third on 8.5 per cent, while Labour languished on 5.4 per cent. The swing from the SNP to the Conservatives was substantial.
“Scottish Conservatives win Aberdeen South by-election, first since 1973, with almost 50% of the vote.”
Badenoch, who made repeated visits to the constituency during the campaign, told jubilant party activists: “I cannot tell you how thrilled I am to be able to welcome Douglas Lumsden to parliament.” She thanked voters for their trust and praised the positivity of Lumsden’s campaign, adding that the result had national significance.
The Conservative leader contrasted the Aberdeen South contest with the Makerfield by-election, where Manchester mayor Andy Burnham won 55 per cent of the vote. “The Makerfield by-election was about one man’s job,” Badenoch said. “The Aberdeen South by-election was about thousands of jobs all over the country but especially in the oil and gas sector.”
Oil and gas dominated the campaign. The seat became vacant when the SNP’s Stephen Flynn resigned from Westminster after being elected to Holyrood, where he now serves as Economy Secretary in John Swinney’s government. Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay described the result as a “sensational victory” and “a referendum on oil and gas”.
Lumsden, who cannot sit in both parliaments because of Holyrood’s ban on dual mandates, will resign from the Scottish Parliament just six weeks after winning re-election as a north-east MSP. He said: “We said at the start of this campaign that it is a referendum on the oil and gas industry and the people of Aberdeen have given a resounding answer that we back the oil and gas industry.”
First Minister John Swinney acknowledged why the SNP lost: “The Conservatives mobilised a campaign which was about capturing the understandable anger there is in Aberdeen and the northeast about the issues affecting the oil and gas sector.” He said he was trying to help the industry by urging Labour to scrap the Energy Profits Levy, which taxes operators at 78 per cent.
Flynn issued a statement that could be seen as a criticism of his own party, saying it was “a tough night in Aberdeen that some will need to reflect on, quite heavily”. He added that he believed the SNP could win the seat again “if we get things right”.
The defeat comes just over a month after Swinney comfortably won the devolved election, and as his administration faces the fallout from the Peter Murrell scandal. Badenoch said the country needed to think about national security and energy security more than ever. Aberdeen, chosen by the UK government as the home of GB Energy, now sits at the heart of a fierce debate over the future of domestic oil and gas.