For the first time in 50 years, the Conservatives have won a by-election in Scotland, taking Aberdeen South from the SNP with a 15% swing and a majority of 6,050. Douglas Lumsden, a former oil and gas worker, secured almost 50% of the vote – well ahead of the SNP’s Richard Thomson on 28.6%. Labour came fourth on 5.4%, behind Reform on 8.5%.
The result gives Kemi Badenoch one of her most significant achievements as party leader and vital evidence to justify her decision to abandon the party’s commitment to net zero by 2050. “Aberdeen has sent a message to the Labour government and the SNP that we will not be ignored,” Badenoch told jubilant activists flanked by Lumsden and Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay. “The sector will not be ignored.”
“Tories win first Scottish by-election in 50 years, with Douglas Lumsden taking Aberdeen South from SNP on 15% swing”
The by-election was triggered when the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, now Economy Secretary in John Swinney’s government, resigned his Commons seat after being elected to Holyrood. The contest was dominated by the future of North Sea oil and gas, with the Tories arguing the basin should be drilled for as long as economically viable, while Labour has pledged to issue no new licences. Lumsden said: “We said at the start of this campaign that it is a referendum on the oil and gas industry and the people of Aberdeen have given a resounding answer that we back the oil and gas industry.”
The SNP’s campaign was overshadowed by the scandal surrounding its former chief executive Peter Murrell, who pleaded guilty to stealing £400,000 in party funds. First Minister John Swinney acknowledged the loss, saying: “The Conservatives mobilised a campaign which was about capturing the understandable anger there is in Aberdeen and the northeast about the issues affecting the oil and gas sector.” He said he was trying to help the industry by urging Labour to scrap the Energy Profits Levy, under which operators hand over 78% of their profits.
Shortly after the Aberdeen result, the SNP claimed victory in the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election, where Lara Bird held the seat. Lumsden, who cannot sit in both parliaments due to a Holyrood ban on dual mandates, will resign from Holyrood just six weeks after being re-elected as an MSP. Badenoch said the country needed to think about national security and energy security more than ever. The question now is whether the appeal of her pro-drilling position can translate in seats away from the north-east.