A by-election in a small constituency near Wigan has become a political earthquake, with the Labour mayor of Greater Manchester smashing the opposition and then declaring it a “final chance to change” for his own party’s government. The Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026 saw Andy Burnham win 55% of the vote, more than 9,000 votes ahead of Reform UK’s Rob Kenyon, who managed only 34%. Nigel Farage called the result “disappointing” and blamed a desire among voters to remove Sir Keir Starmer, but the contest also exposed a split on the right, with Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain taking nearly 7%.
A by-election is a special election held when a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant between general elections. This can happen if the MP resigns, dies, or is expelled. In Makerfield, the previous Labour MP stood down, triggering the vote. By-elections are often seen as a mid-term test of the government’s popularity. The last general election was in 2024, when Labour won a landslide. But since then, the party’s poll ratings have slumped, and Sir Keir Starmer faces internal discontent. Burnham, the outgoing mayor of Greater Manchester, used the by-election to return to Parliament – a necessary step if he wants to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership. His win was emphatic: Labour’s vote share rose compared to 2024, a rare feat for a governing party.
“An explainer on UK by-elections using the 2026 Makerfield result as a case study.”
The history of by-elections shows they can be pivotal. In 1990, Labour’s victory in Mid Staffordshire helped pave the way for John Major’s leadership. More recently, by-elections have been used by voters to punish the government – as in 2023 when Labour lost two seats to the Conservatives. But Makerfield is different: a popular local figure, Burnham, stood as the Labour candidate, and his personal appeal trumped the national mood. Reform UK had hoped to win and present itself as a viable alternative to Labour, but it was outflanked on the right by Restore, founded by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe. Farage urged Restore voters to “think again” and back Reform as the “challenger party to the left”.
For UK readers, this by-election matters for three reasons. First, it shows that a well-known local candidate can defy national trends. Second, it highlights the split on the right: if Reform and Restore cannot unite, Labour may benefit from a divided opposition, as happened in several constituencies in 2024. Third, it sets the stage for a possible Labour leadership contest. Burnham now has a seat in the Commons, and reports say he has the nominations needed to trigger a challenge. If Starmer is ousted, it would be the first time a sitting prime minister has been forced out by his own party since Margaret Thatcher in 1990.
Q: What is a by-election and how does it work? A by-election is a vote held in a single constituency when the MP leaves office mid-term. It follows the same rules as a general election, but only voters in that seat take part. The candidate who gets the most votes wins, and the result can be seen as a snapshot of public opinion.
Q: Why did Andy Burnham win so convincingly? Burnham is a well-known figure in Greater Manchester, having been mayor since 2017. His personal popularity, along with the implicit message that a vote for him was a vote to remove Sir Keir Starmer, helped him win 55% of the vote. Reform UK’s candidate also faced scrutiny over sexist social media posts, which may have cost him support.
Q: What does the Makerfield result mean for Nigel Farage and Reform UK? Farage admitted the result was “disappointing” and said his party was “slightly hoist with our own petard” because it had framed recent elections as a chance to kick out Starmer – the same message Burnham used. Reform also lost votes to Restore, which took nearly 7%. Farage urged those voters to back Reform as the main challenger to Labour.
What happens next? Andy Burnham is now the newest Labour MP and is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the party leadership. Starmer has said he will “stand and fight”. If a leadership election is triggered, it could reshape British politics. Meanwhile, Reform UK will review its campaign strategy, with party insiders saying tactical voting on the right could cost them the keys to No 10 in 2029. The next general election must be held by 2029.