The UK is bracing for a return of scorching temperatures just days after the record-shattering heatwave that saw the mercury hit 37.7C in Norfolk – the highest June temperature ever recorded in Britain. Forecasts suggest the heat could climb back into the mid-30Cs in England and Wales next week, raising the prospect of a third heatwave this year.
Met Office deputy chief forecaster Tony Wisson struck a cautious note, saying: "Although a return to heatwave conditions is looking increasingly likely for some areas, the likelihood of such extreme high temperatures or high levels of humidity as last week is currently low." The warning comes after a new provisional UK record for June of 37.7C was set in Lingwood, Norfolk, on Friday, beating the previous record of 35.6C set in 1957 and equalled in 1976.
“UK faces potential heatwave next week with temperatures possibly reaching mid-30s Celsius, says Met Office”
This week, a brief respite will bring fresher air. Met Office forecaster Honor Criswick said: "The new week brings in some fresher air, it’s not going to be feeling as hot or humid, but there is still some sunshine in the forecast." Temperatures are expected to reach the mid-20s across much of England and Wales, with London hitting 27C by Thursday – almost at heatwave levels. But high pressure is set to move in from the south-west by the end of the week, pushing temperatures up again.
Beyond the UK, the heatwave has been deadly. The World Health Organization attributed more than 1,300 excess deaths to the heat since 21 June, with around 1,000 of those in France. National all-time temperature records fell in at least eight European countries, including the Czech Republic, Germany, Poland and Denmark.
Forecasters from the Met Office and BBC Weather data supplier had already predicted an "increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts" for July and August. The Met Office summer outlook for 11-25 July suggests temperatures are "likely to be above normal on the whole, with a greater than normal chance of hot conditions developing at times." Long-range models from WXCharts indicate a third heatwave could arrive around 7 July, with temperatures hitting 32C in south-east England and possibly 36C in London by 8 July.
But uncertainty remains. The UK has already endured two heatwaves this year and recorded the hottest spring ever in England and Wales. A heatwave is defined as three consecutive days above a threshold – 27C for much of south-east England, 28C in London. Whether that threshold will be met this week remains to be seen, but the signs point to another sizzling spell.