More than one million 16- to 24-year-olds in the UK are now not in education, employment or training – with the figure expected to rise to 1.25 million by 2031, according to a landmark government-backed report.
The warning, described by former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn as a mounting economic risk, calls for a fundamental reset of policy across schools, the health service and the welfare state. Youth disengagement, Milburn said, threatens to create a 'lost generation' unless urgent action is taken.
“The number of 16-24 year olds not in education, employment or training has surpassed one million in the UK, and is projected to reach 1.25 million by 2031, according to a major report warning of a 'lost generation'.”
The report highlights that the number of young people classified as NEET (not in education, employment or training) has climbed above one million, equivalent to roughly one in six of the 16-24 age group. By 2031, that could rise to one in six – meaning about 1.25 million young people – if current trends continue.
The figures come amid a sharp contraction in sectors that traditionally employ young people. Hospitality vacancies, for example, have halved since the Covid-19 pandemic, leaving many young people facing what the Metro described as a 'hopeless catch-22' – unable to get a job without experience, but unable to gain experience without a job.
The scale of the problem has prompted the Work and Pensions Secretary, quoted by Channel 4 News, to say: 'We can’t afford 1m of young people not in education, employment or training.' The minister called for more focus on helping young people into work and training.
Alan Milburn, who chairs the review, told the Guardian: 'Youth disengagement is a mounting economic risk to the country, and urged a fundamental reset of policy covering schools, the health service and the welfare state.' He added that the situation demands cross-government action to prevent long-term scarring of a generation.
The report is published at a time when the UK labour market is showing signs of strain, with youth unemployment rising even as overall employment remains relatively high. The Financial Times noted that ministers are under pressure to make a fresh push for welfare reform, as the number of young Britons out of work or training climbs above 1 million.
The New Statesman asked: 'Can Starmer save Britain’s lost generation?' – reflecting the political urgency of the issue for the current government.
Across the UK, the impact is being felt in every region, though the report does not break down figures by nation. In England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, similar challenges of youth disengagement are reported, with rural and coastal areas often hit hardest due to fewer employment opportunities.
The review calls for a co-ordinated effort involving schools, colleges, employers and local authorities to identify young people at risk and provide targeted support. It also recommends reforms to the benefits system to ensure that work pays and that young people are not trapped in low-quality, insecure jobs.
What happens next: The government is expected to respond to the report in the coming weeks. Ministers have already indicated that welfare reform and skills training are priorities, but the scale of the challenge means that significant investment and policy change will be needed to reverse the trend.
What This Means For You
If you are a young person aged 16-24: The job market is currently very tough, especially in sectors like hospitality and retail. You may be eligible for additional support through your local Jobcentre Plus or college – for example, traineeships, apprenticeships or the Kickstart scheme. It's worth seeking advice from careers services.
If you are a parent or guardian: Your child could be at risk of falling into the NEET category without early intervention. Schools and local authorities have a duty to identify those at risk and offer support. Engaging with your child's school or college is crucial.
If you are a homeowner or taxpayer: The cost to the public purse of supporting young people who are NEET is significant – in lost tax revenue and higher welfare spending. The report warns that failure to act will increase these costs further.
If you are an employer: The review urges businesses to offer more entry-level jobs, apprenticeships and work experience placements. Doing so not only helps young people but also builds your future workforce.
For everyone: The 'lost generation' is not inevitable. But the report makes clear that without urgent action, the UK will pay a heavy economic and social price for years to come.