The start of meteorological summer delivered a dramatic reversal: after a late spring heatwave that shattered records with 35.1C in Kew Gardens, London, the UK is now hit by rain, unseasonably strong winds, and a yellow Met Office warning for southern Britain. The change was driven by a strengthening jet stream that replaced the high pressure behind western Europe's record-breaking heat in late May.
Saturday brought more rain and showers alongside winds strong enough to force the cancellation of the final day of the Royal Cornwall Show, with the Met Office warning that trees in full leaf could pose a risk to outdoor events. By Sunday morning, rain will have spread into Northern Ireland and western Scotland, moving eastwards through the day. Southern areas will be drier under a ridge of higher pressure, meaning parts of the Midlands, East Anglia and south-east England might stay dry and feel warmer if the sun appears.
“UK summer starts with rain and strong winds after record May heatwave, but long-range forecasts suggest heatwaves may return later.”
Sunday night and Monday morning will push the rain band further south and east, giving eastern areas a wet start to the working week, with showers to follow elsewhere. Tuesday looks turbulent with regular showers that by afternoon will be heavy with hail, thunder and lightning. Wednesday brings fewer showers before another low pressure moves in on Thursday, bringing widespread rain once again.
Yet while the immediate outlook is cool and wet, long-range forecasts point to a potentially hotter summer ahead. The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June – the first day of meteorological summer – citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during June. For the whole summer through to the end of August, the outlook suggests "an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts". MeteoGroup, the provider of BBC Weather data, also indicates above-average temperatures throughout June, July and August, with the potential for a few notable spikes in temperature and significant bursts of heat affecting both the UK and parts of Europe. That broadly aligns with the Met Office’s longer-range outlook.
The late spring heatwave had already marked a milestone: the previous May record of 32.8C from 1944 was wiped out by the 35.1C at Kew Gardens, and yellow and amber heat health alerts were issued for the first time this year. Now, after the rain and wind, the question is when – not if – the next heatwave will arrive.