Much of the UK is facing a record-breaking heatwave, with temperatures in parts of southern England potentially reaching 37C or higher – a mark that would smash the previous June high and come hot on the heels of unprecedented heat in May.
The intense conditions have prompted scientists to warn that even hotter temperatures are likely in the years ahead, and that the UK needs to make preparations for more extreme heat a much greater priority.
“Temperatures could hit 37C in southern England as scientists say 40C summers could become regular within decades.”
“We expect increasing temperatures and the breaking of temperature records due to climate change,” said Lizzie Kendon, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol and head of climate projections at the UK Met Office. “What is so extraordinary, however, is the margin by which the record will be broken.”
While temperatures vary naturally from year to year, UK summers have clearly been getting warmer. Between 2015 and 2024, the number of days exceeding 30C in the UK more than trebled compared with the 1961-1990 average, according to the Met Office. The maximum temperature recorded each year has shot up too. Reaching 35C was a rare event throughout the 20th century – but six out of the past 10 years have passed that mark.
The UK’s hottest recorded temperature now stands at 40.3C, set in July 2022. Before 1990, the UK had not seen 37C. But these records are almost certainly going to keep getting broken. If global warming continues at its current pace, temperatures in the mid‑forties could be a serious possibility for the UK by 2050, according to Met Office projections.
Higher temperatures driven by climate change dry out the soil too. With less moisture available, less heat energy is used for evaporation – leaving more energy to warm the air and amplifying the hot conditions. Some scientists have also argued that climate change could be making high-pressure systems more likely to become “stuck”, creating a “heat dome” that traps hot air underneath – as Europe has been experiencing this week. This is not yet certain.
“Climate change [is] loading the atmosphere with extra heat and making extreme temperatures far more intense than they would have been in the past,” said Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist at the University of Reading.
Scientists stress that the only way to limit rising summer temperatures is to rapidly cut global emissions of planet‑warming gases. As the mercury climbs this week, the warning from experts is clear: the UK’s summers are getting hotter – and without action, 40C could soon become the norm.