More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to end hostilities. But as Donald Trump declared “Let the oil flow!” and later said ships were “loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz” which was “totally safe, secure and pristine”, ship-tracking data told a different story.
BBC Verify checked MarineTraffic data and found only two vessels with active location trackers had exited the waterway since Sunday – a bulk carrier and a tanker. The strait has been effectively closed to most shipping since 28 February, with only limited numbers of Iran-friendly vessels able to pass. Hundreds of ships remain stuck in the Gulf, the risk of sea mines or drone strikes driving up danger to crews.
“Three months of war with Iran ends with a deal, but experts warn oil flows through Strait of Hormuz will take months to recover.”
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the deal “represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement”. He warned it would likely “take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels” because tankers are in the wrong place, oil production and refining facilities need to get to full capacity, and questions over insurance costs remain. The war had sent global oil prices soaring as the conflict closed the key route for oil, liquid natural gas and other commodities.
Shipping companies are moving cautiously. Denmark’s Maersk, the world’s second biggest shipping line, has five ships stuck and said it was too early to assess how the agreement “will impact logistics”. German rival Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
On financial markets, oil prices dropped and stocks enjoyed a cautious rally on the peace progress. But the US president faced criticism at home: the Financial Times reported that Trump was battling claims his deal was worse than Obama’s, with critics questioning whether the concessions offered to Tehran were worth four months of war.
The experts warn that even with a framework deal, the impact of the war will continue to affect the global economy for potentially months to come. As Trump heralded the reopening, the real test will be whether shipping traffic can return to normal – and how long that takes.