More than three months after the US and Israel first began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to bring about a more long-term end to hostilities. The conflict closed one of the world's key water transport routes – the Strait of Hormuz – sending global oil prices soaring and limiting supplies of oil, liquid natural gas and other essential commodities.
"Let the oil flow!" US President Donald Trump declared in a social media post heralding the agreement, which he said would include the reopening of the strait to commercial shipping. "Ships are starting to move," Trump claimed later on Monday, "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" – which he described as "totally safe, secure and pristine".
“Trump says oil flows but data shows only two vessels have exited the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday.”
But BBC Verify has checked ship-tracking data that appears to tell a different story. According to MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the waterway since Sunday – a bulk carrier and a tanker. The strait has been closed to most shipping traffic since 28 February, with only limited numbers of vessels friendly to Iran able to pass through. Hundreds of vessels remain stuck in the gulf, their crews facing the risk of sea mines or drone strikes.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist for Capital Economics, said it remained to be seen whether the deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement". He added that it was likely it will "take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels". "Even if ships now have safe passage, tankers are in the wrong place, oil production/refining facilities need to get up to full capacity, and questions over the cost and availability of insurance for ships traversing the Strait will remain," he said.
During the ongoing ceasefire before the agreement, shipping companies were largely reluctant to move their vessels out of the strait – and getting those vessels out remains their first focus. Denmark's Maersk, the world's second biggest shipping line, has five ships stuck in the Gulf. The firm said it was too early to assess how the agreement "will impact logistics", and that for now there is no change to its operations in the region. German shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd has four ships stuck in the strait and hopes to get them out over the weekend, once the deal is signed and any remaining mines are cleared.
Despite the cautious reality on the water, financial markets have responded with optimism. Oil prices dropped and stocks enjoyed a cautious rally on Tuesday, reflecting hopes that the peace progress will ease the hit to the global economy caused by the war. But experts warn the impact will continue to affect the global economy for months to come.