More than three months after the US and Israel began their war with Iran, the White House and the Iranian regime have agreed a framework deal to end hostilities – sending oil prices tumbling and global stocks surging, but leaving the Strait of Hormuz all but deserted.
"Let the oil flow!" US President Donald Trump declared on social media, heralding an agreement that would include the reopening of the vital waterway to commercial shipping. "Ships are starting to move," Trump said on Monday, "loaded up with oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz" – which he insisted was "totally safe, secure and pristine."
“Oil prices drop and stocks rally as US and Iran agree framework deal, but Strait of Hormuz traffic remains low.”
But BBC Verify's examination of ship-tracking data tells a different story. According to MarineTraffic, only two vessels with active location trackers have exited the strait since Sunday: a bulk carrier and a tanker. The waterway has been effectively closed to most shipping since 28 February, with only limited Iran-friendly vessels able to pass. Hundreds of ships remain trapped in the gulf, their crews facing the threat of sea mines and drone strikes.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, warned it remained uncertain whether the deal "represents a fragile truce or a durable settlement." Even if safe passage is now theoretically possible, he said, "it will take some time for oil flows through the Strait to return to pre-war levels." Tankers are in the wrong places, production and refining facilities must ramp up, and questions over insurance costs persist.
Denmark's Maersk, the world's second-largest shipping line, has five vessels stuck in the Gulf. The firm said it was too early to assess how the agreement "will impact logistics" and reported no immediate change to operations. German rival Hapag-Lloyd, with four ships trapped, hopes to extract them over the weekend once the deal is signed and any remaining mines cleared.
Despite the logistical chaos, financial markets responded with cautious optimism. Oil prices dropped and stocks enjoyed a rally, with the FT reporting that the US-Iran deal ignited a global surge in investor sentiment, also boosted by SpaceX's historic initial public offering. But as Shearing noted, the real test is whether this peace holds – and whether the world's oil can actually start flowing again.